WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s business economists have sharply raised their forecasts for inflation, predicting an extension of the price spikes that have resulted in large part from bottlenecked supply chains.
A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics found that its panel of forecasters expects consumer prices to rise 6% this quarter compared with a year ago. That marks an increase from the 5.1% inflation the forecasters predicted in September for the same 12-month period.
Eighty-seven percent of the panelists have identified supply chain bottlenecks as a major factor in the acceleration of prices.
Julie Coronado, vice president of the NABE, said that nearly three-fourths of the panel of 48 forecasters expects the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which reflects consumer spending patterns, to increase 4.9% this year — far above the central bank’s 2% annual inflation target.
Nearly 60% of the NABE panelists expect the job market to reach full employment over the next year. Two-thirds of the panelists said they think wage gains will keep inflation elevated over the next three years.
On Friday, the government reported that the unemployment rate tumbled to 4.2% in November from 4.6% in October. The NABE panel expects the unemployment rate to keep declining to 3.8% by the end of 2022.
Last month, employers added just 210,000 jobs, the government estimated Friday. That was the weakest monthly gain in nearly a year and less than half of October’s gain of 546,000 jobs. The NABE panel, though, expects monthly gains in payroll jobs to average 337,000 next year, up about 5% from its projection in the September survey.
The forecasting panel expects the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, to expand by 5.5% this year. That would mark a robust bounce-back from the 3.4% drop in GDP last year, when the economy was derailed by nationwide shutdowns caused by the eruption of the pandemic. Next year, the NABE forecasters expect GDP to grow by a still-solid 3.9%.
Addressing the snarled supply chains that have hobbled the economy this year, a majority of NABE panelists (58%) say they think the flow of goods will begin to normalize in the first half of 2022. Twenty-two percent say they think that process has already begun.
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Thanks a lot Uncle Joe/Mr. puppet and BHO and Soros
As long as Democrats rule it will keep getting worse!
ALL according to their globalist plan to RUIN this nation!
A billion here a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money – Senator Everett Dirksen 1961. Fast forward to 2021 and ex-Senator, now President Joe Biden’s “A Trillion here a trillion there with THE PEOPLE Responding, “You must be talking about imaginary money” Like Ecclesiastes said, “There is nothing new under the son” corruption remains in the same old forms. The faces may change but the social insanity and self-serving corruption remains the same.
Permanently temporary, huh, Joe?
Let’s Go Brandon
Well, at least it’s not fully, Semi- automatic inflation!
This just can’t be the same Nobel prize winning economists Joe claims supports his non-inflationary predictions of adding trillions of government’s printed dollars to fund their latest grabs for more American soon to fail social experimentations that Manchin might just derail. Funny but Joe refuses to give out the names of any of the imaginary Prize-winning economic predictors whose Nobel prizes in economics must be as invalid as Obama’s was for Peace. Thanks to Joes inflationary economic screwups, the cost increase to pay 70 million people currently on social Security which was a 1.3 percent in 2021 will now balloon to 5.9 percent in 2022 tied to the increase in the cost of living, more than 4 times the expense in unfulfilled Government IOUs or more printed money causing more inflation spiraling into a Jimmy Carter economy and a debt burden of death for our children to inherit.
Luke 1:44 “For, lo, as soon as the voice of thy salutation sounded in mine ears, the babe leaped in my womb for joy.”,,,,until Joe Biden took over the government and the voice of his corrupting media sounded in our Jen Psaki burdened ears, and the innocent in the womb lost their joy and began to prefer abortion to being born into a Biden “I created that” economic slavery.