Nasty winter tornadoes — like the deadly ones last week that hit five states — are likely to be stronger and stay on the ground longer with a wider swath of destruction in a warming world, a new study shows.
The combination of a longer and wider track with slightly stronger winds means some rare winter tornadoes that are killers now will have nine times more the power by the end of the century if carbon dioxide levels continued to rise, according to a study presented at the American Geophysical Union conference Monday.
The study, which pre-dates the devastating Mayfield, Kentucky, tornado outbreak, looks at strength and not frequency of big tornadoes as climate change progresses. Not peer reviewed yet, it was presented in poster form as a peak at new research to be published later.
“There is a potential for events in the future that are more intense that would not have been as intense in the current climate,” said study author Jeff Trapp, head of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. “Bearing in mind that these high end events are still going to be rare.”
Trapp took the conditions during two large tornado strikes in 2013 — the Hattiesburg, Mississippi, tornado that in February of that year injured 82 people with winds of 170 mph and the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado that killed 24 people with winds up to 210 mph (340 kph) in May— and put them into dozens of computer simulations of worst-case climate change scenario by 2100, which other scientists say is increasingly unlikely.
The worst-case scenario, which the world used to be on track for, would have another 6 degrees (3.3 degrees Celsius) or so of warming between now and the end of the century. Trapp said he will soon run simulations based on a scenario closer to the current trajectory for carbon dioxide emissions of about 3.2 degrees (1.8 degrees Celsius) warming above current levels.
Trapp found a big change on the winter storm, significantly longer and wider tracks and windspeed increases around 14% that added up to the nine-fold increase in power when using a formula that takes wind speed, rotation and size of path into account. Power increased 1.5 times for the spring storm, he said.
Trapp said that’s because there are two key ingredients needed for tornadoes: unstable stormy weather and wind shear. Wind shear, the difference between winds up high and near the ground, is usually stronger in the winter, but there’s not as much stormy weather because it requires warm humid conditions near the ground. But as the world warms there will be more opportunity for instability in the winter, he said.
Three outside scientists said there may be something to the research, but they aren’t yet completely convinced.
“I’m not 100% sold on the technique, but it’s a very interesting approach,” said Harold Brooks, a scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. “To me the really interesting result seems to be the longer-tracks for the cool season.”
A single study always raises uncertainty issues, but the results make sense, said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini: “One of the major components to Friday’s outbreak was the broad and anomalous warm (swath of temperatures) which permitted the storm to last for what will likely be a record-breaking path length.”
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If these so called experts would read the bible and follow Gods word they would see that these events are in the bible describing the ends times. They should be more concerned for their eternal home then the weather.
Hurricanes, Tornadoes etc. of exceptional size have been hitting the USA forever. The only difference now is that our population went from 90 million in 1900 to 350 million today and we now have the technology and capability to track and predict them. More people are populating well used tornado alleys that formerly were empty fields and forests that previously went unnoticed. Triple the amount of homes, factories and buildings and it may appear to be climate change, but the only thing that has changed is our now over-population, much of it illegal. If you really want to stop the global warning you would have to rip up all the concrete roads and business’s that absorb and hold heat from the sun which raises the temperatures of our large cities 3-5 degrees higher than the areas of grass and trees. Maybe we can all just resign ourselves to live in tents and hunt for our food like good socially woke tree huggers who fear bovine flatulance more than their own petro emissions social manipulating propganda.
PLUS more and more, FOLKS ARE NOT being required BY LAW< to carry insurance for their homes, selves and vehicles, SO WHEN THE FIT hits the shan, and they DO GET HIT, there are MORE HANDS OUT for unca govt, to BAIL THEM OUT…
We had to know this was coming. Biden stepped into climate change right out of the gate but his handlers shut him down. Did you happen to hear him speak yesterday? He was dripping with phony sympathy and anyone who has followed this man knows he is not a sympathetic person.
Dear climate change enthusiasts, experts, morons—whatever—this universe right down to this planet are not man-made. Man has never controlled it and never will. This planet is unique in all of its complexity—its numerous ecosystems and the myriad of life forms that are suited for each.
The Earth’s climate has changed multiple times over the years, but it has never threatened the support of all of the life that it sustains—including human. Change in climactic conditions is normal—so let the Creator do His work and stop acting as though you can improve upon anything.
green is in reality THE NEW RED.
YEA< red of communism!
These climate kooks never miss the chance to bloviate, regurgitate and obfuscate.
Of course not. NEVER LET A crisis go to waste!