Election Day is just a month away, and already media outlets are trying to spin the election polling. Headlines are popping up such as “Has the GOP peaked?” which are intended to cast doubt on the undeniable wave sweeping the country. The fact is, if you look at the polls without the spin, you’ll see the possibility of the Democrats suffering major defeats. However, the ballots are not cast today. There is still much to do, and there are plenty of opportunities for the media to help spin this election.
First, a look at some numbers. A newly-released Gallup poll shows that Republicans are leading Democrats in the “generic ballot poll” by 46% to 43%. Republicans have led for months on the generic ballot question, but the real test is how LIKELY voters feel. There are many, many registered voters who will not be setting foot in the voting booth. A more accurate assessment is to gauge the sentiments of likely voters.
In the case of likely voters, the results change dramatically. With a “high turnout” on Election Day, Republicans lead 53% to 40%. With a low turnout, the lead is 56% to 38%. In either case, it doesn’t look good for Democrats, and as Gallup points out, the real key is that “independents in both likely voter models skew strongly toward the Republican candidate.
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A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows a similar 3-point edge for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. As pointed out in the article, however, “among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.” Rasmussen also notes that for the second consecutive month, the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats has fallen to a record low.”
But this is NOT the time to be complacent. Investors.com reminds readers that there is plenty of spin out there claiming that “Democrats may avoid a wipeout in a month. Martin Frost is even so bold as to suggest that Democrats will keep the House.” This is a desperate attempt to generate some excitement so that Democrat voters will turn out. Conservatives need to do the same thing and always keep in mind that the media are not on our side.
A perfect example is the recent left-wing rally that occurred in Washington, DC. It was designed to be a counter rally to Glenn Beck’s highly successful “Restoring Honor” rally in late August. The official Associated Press write-up of the event goes on and on about the event, but when it comes to reporting and comparing the actual turnout to Beck’s rally, here is what was written:
Organizers claimed they had as many participants as Beck’s rally. But Saturday’s crowds were less dense and didn’t reach as far to the edges as they did during Beck’s rally. The National Park Service stopped providing official crowd estimates in the 1990s.
Less dense? Just look at the crowd comparison pictures. I guess one could call it “less dense,” but I’d call it empty.
There is a lot of work to do between now and Election Day, and the only ones on YOUR side are your fellow grassroots conservatives. The elections will be won by getting people to the polls who believe in lower taxes, less government, and more freedom. The media are not on our side, but we don’t need them to get the job done.