What a night it was. I tuned in to watch the election coverage last night, and I had no idea what I was about to see. Sure… I saw poll numbers that showed Rick Santorum holding a lead in Minnesota. I then heard that Missouri “could go his way.” But the other state casting votes on Tuesday was Colorado, and Mitt Romney won big there in 2008, and he was leading in the polls this time around. When the dust settled, Santorum went three-for-three, and completely turned the GOP race for president upside-down.
Each state was significant in its own way, and the analysis will come in just a bit, but here are the numbers:
Minnesota:
Santorum: 21,420 (45%)
Paul: 13,023 (27%)
Romney: 8,090 (17%)
Gingrich: 5,128 (11%)
Missouri:
Santorum: 138,957 (55%)
Romney: 63,826 (25%)
Paul: 30,641 (12%)
Colorado:
Santorum: 26,372 (40%)
Romney: 22,875 (35%)
Gingrich: 8,394 (13%)
Paul: 7,713 (12%)
It was quite remarkable, and here is what Rick Santorum had to say about it in his own words. Keep in mind that this speech occurred before he was even declared the winner in Colorado.
Keep in mind that none of the three states contested on Tuesday night have binding delegates. It’s a strange system. Basically representatives in those states will meet again and determine delegate allocation, but anyone who tells you that the Tuesday night elections don’t matter is crazy.
Here’s Romney’s speech from Tuesday night:
Now… the analysis. What does it all mean, and how and why did Rick Santorum win these three contests? The answer is… there is more than one reason. There are three.
First, as we saw in Iowa (which Santorum won), Minnesota and Colorado held caucuses which tend to bring out more conservative voters. This certainly gives a helping hand to Santorum, but it is not the complete answer. Missouri held a primary and over 200,000 people voted… Santorum won BIG! Romney trounced John McCain in Colorado in 2008 by getting 60% of the vote, and this time he lost by five points. This gives us reason number one:
Reason #1 — Many voters are still looking for a conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.
Ok, but what about Newt Gingrich? Wasn’t he the conservative alternative to Romney? On Tuesday night, he wasn’t even on the Missouri ballot. In Colorado, he placed third, and in Minnesota, he finished fourth. That’s a pretty dismal performance for the conservative alternative. Is it time for him to drop out?
Why the drop? Why the switch? Could it be that the elections in South Carolina and Florida were just too much for the voters to take? When millions and millions of dollars are spent by Romney and Gingrich Super PACs in an effort to destroy each other, the aftermath could be that voters are sick of it all. This gives us reason number two:
Reason #2 — Voters are sick of the mud. Santorum has stayed above the fray and has focused primarily on the issues and Barack Obama. A candidate can contrast himself from his opponents without slinging mud, and Santorum has been that candidate.
Next we have the issues. It’s the economy, stupid. Right? I mean… that’s what this election is all about, right? Yes… but not completely. Obama’s recent actions against the Catholic universities and hospitals could not have come at a better time to remind people that Barack Obama is not only bad for the American economy, he’s also bad for the American social fabric. Conservatives are concerned about jobs and the economy and the debt just like everyone else. They also care about having a president who respects freedom of speech and religion. This gives us reason number three:
Reason #3 — Social issues still matter. Santorum has always registered highly with conservatives on social issues. With Obama’s actions, voters were reminded that it’s not just about the economy. Santorum was able to harness those sentiments and present himself as the candidate to pick on social issues.
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Tuesday was the Santorum shake up. What happens next remains to be seen. The candidates finally have some time to gain or lose momentum. Can Santorum build upon these victories? Can Romney regroup? What about Gingrich and Paul? One thing is clear… this race is far from over.
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