What a crazy night in Iowa! At some point over the last several months, it seems like every single GOP presidential candidate was at the top of the Iowa polls — oh, except for Rick Santorum. But everything started to change. As Newt Gingrich slipped, and Santorum’s ground game kicked in, the former Pennsylvania senator began to rise in the polls. Ron Paul made it a three-way race for part of the evening, but as more votes came in, it was clear that the winner of Iowa would either be Mitt Romney or Santorum. In effect, the election was a tie, but in this case, the tie goes to Santorum who now emerges as the conservative alternative to Romney.
The official winner of Tuesday night’s Iowa caucus was Romney. He won by a staggering eight votes. That’s all that separated the top two. It was really quite incredible:
100% of precincts reporting
Total Votes and Percentage
Mitt Romney: 30,015 – 24.6%
Rick Santorum: 30,007 – 24.5%
Ron Paul: 26,219 – 21.4%
Newt Gingrich: 16,251 – 13.3%
Rick Perry: 12,604 – 10.3%
Michele Bachmann: 6,073 – 5%
Jon Huntsman: 745 – 0.6%
Herman Cain: 58 – 0%
Buddy Roemer: 31 – 0%
No Preference: 135 – 0.1%
Other: 117 – 0.1%
For all intents and purposes, the list could be stopped after MIchele Bachmann. Jon Huntsman finished lower, but he didn’t campaign in Iowa. Instead, he’s focusing his campaign in New Hampshire.
What does the election mean? Here are some thoughts:
For Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, it’s time to pack things up, say their good-byes, and fall in behind a remaining candidate. Their campaigns are done. Both had their time in the sun, but Bachmann couldn’t reignite her campaign once she lost ground when Rick Perry entered the race. Perry stumbled badly on many levels as he was made to look like just another crony politician with the gardasil issue and soft on illegal immigration. Those were the substantive issues… then there were his debates.
In any event, the right thing for them to do would be to endorse the candidate they feel would carry the conservative mantle for the rest of the campaign. That candidate naturally appears to be Rick Santorum.
Gingrich will continue because he wants to show the other candidates that they can’t debate. But as we saw in Iowa, when the barrage of negative ads hit, they take their toll.
Ron Paul will continue because that’s what he does. He raises money and campaigns for president. However, he will fade away until he finally drops out of the race, and we will all wonder if he will endorse the eventual Republican nominee. He says he’s a Republican, but it’s just a means for him to run for president.
That leaves Romney and Santorum. Wow… what a race!
Romney showed once again that he can’t move beyond his core 24%. He always polls around that number, and that’s what he received in Iowa. But now Iowa is done. He won, and he can move on to New Hampshire. He should do quite well there, since the state is more favorable to both his geography and his politics. However, there are a couple of candidates who can do some damage, namely Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum. Huntsman has been campaigning strongly in New Hampshire and has developed a following. Santorum now has the Iowa “victory” to give him some momentum.
Ah… Santorum. Any follower of GOP politics should congratulate Rick Santorum on his efforts in Iowa. He did it with handshakes and events and door-to-door politics. After being an asterisk at the debates, he now emerges as the conservative challenger to Romney. The problem is that New Hampshire votes on Tuesday, January 10, so there is not much time for momentum. However, if he does decently in New Hampshire, as in a strong second or third, then he can focus on the real target: South Carolina. That is next on the calendar and one in which a conservative could emerge as the victor.
Politics is a crazy business, and elections are even crazier. Just when you think you know what will happen… BOOM!
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