Either the U.S. and NATO provide us with “legal guarantees” that Ukraine will never join NATO or become a base for weapons that can threaten Russia — or we will go in and guarantee it ourselves.
This is the message Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending, backed by the 100,000 troops Russia has amassed on Ukraine’s borders.
At the Kremlin last week, Putin drew his red line:
“The threat on our western borders is … rising, as we have said multiple times. … In our dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on developing concrete agreements prohibiting any further eastward expansion of NATO and the placement there of weapons systems in the immediate vicinity of Russian territory.”
That comes close to an ultimatum. And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg backhanded the President of Russia for issuing it:
“It’s only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. … Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence trying to control their neighbors.”
Yet, great powers have always established spheres of influence. Chinese President Xi Jinping claims virtually the entire South China Sea that is bordered by half a dozen nations. For 200 years, the United States has declared a Monroe Doctrine that puts our hemisphere off-limits to new colonizations.
Moreover, Putin wants to speak to the real decider of the question as to whether Ukraine joins NATO or receives weapons that can threaten Russia. And the decider is not Jens Stoltenberg but President Joe Biden.
In the missile crisis of 60 years ago, the U.S., with its “quarantine” of Cuba and strategic and tactical superiority in the Caribbean, forced Nikita Khrushchev to pull his intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which could reach Washington, off of Fidel Castro’s island.
If it did not do so, Moscow was led to understand, we would use our air and naval supremacy to destroy his missiles and send in the Marines to finish the job.
Accepting a counteroffer for the U.S. withdrawal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey, Khrushchev complied with President John F. Kennedy’s demand. Russia’s missiles came out. And Kennedy was seen as having won a Cold War victory.
Now it is we who are being told to comply with Russia’s demands in Ukraine, or Russia will go in to Ukraine and neutralize the threat itself.
The history?
When the Warsaw Pact collapsed and the USSR came apart three decades ago, Russia withdrew all of its military forces from Central and Eastern Europe. Moscow believed it had an agreed-upon understanding with the Americans.
Under the deal, the two Germanys would be reunited. Russian troops would be removed from East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. And there would be no NATO expansion into Eastern Europe.
If America made that commitment, it was a promise broken. For, within 20 years, NATO had brought every Warsaw Pact nation into the alliance along with the former Soviet republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Neocons and Republican hawks such as the late John McCain sought to bring Ukraine and two other ex-Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova, into NATO.
Putin, who served in the KGB in the late Soviet era and calls the breakup of the USSR the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century, is now saying: Enough is enough.
Translation: “Thus far and no further! Ukraine is not going to be a member of NATO or a military ally and partner of the United States, nor a base for weapons that can strike Russia in minutes. For us, that crosses a red line. And if NATO proceeds with arming Ukraine for conflict with Russia, we reserve the right to act first. Finlandize Ukraine, or we will!”
The problem for Biden?
In Ukraine and in Georgia, as we saw in the 2008 war, Russia has the tactical and strategic superiority we had in 1962 in Cuba. Moreover, while Ukraine is vital to Russia, it has never been vital to us.
When President Franklin D. Roosevelt recognized Joseph Stalin’s USSR in 1933, Moscow was engaged in the forced collectivization of the farms of Ukraine, which had caused a famine and the deaths of millions. We Americans did nothing to stop it.
During the Cold War, America never insisted on the independence of Ukraine. Though we celebrated when the Baltic states and Ukraine broke free of Moscow, we never regarded their independence as vital interests for which America should be willing to go to war.
A U.S. war with Russia over Ukraine would be a disaster for all three nations. Nor could the U.S. indefinitely guarantee the independence of a country 5,000 miles away that shares not only a lengthy border with Mother Russia but also a history, language, religion, ethnicity and culture.
Forced to choose between accepting Russia’s demand that NATO stay out of Ukraine and Russia going in, the U.S. is not going to war.
Biden should tell Putin: The U.S. will not be issuing any NATO war guarantees to fight for Ukraine.
Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.” To find out more about Patrick Buchanan and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators website at www.creators.com.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine had on its territory the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. It was bigger than Britain, France and China combined. As part of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the United States, Britan and Russia would pay attention and respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, that there would be no use of force or threat of force against Ukraine. The previous Obama sanctioned takeover by Russia of the Crimea was nothing less than a Russian military occupation of the peninsula and a betrayal of the Ukraine similar to what Obama’s puppet Biden is about to allow to happen to the entire Ukraine. By rights we should not only rearm the Ukraine with conventional weapons to fend off the soviet tanks and aircraft, but give them back about 5 nukes which after the Russian Chernobyl betrayal, would send enough shivers down the spines of the self-nuked Russian people that Putin would be tossed out of power by his own in a heartbeat. Do it without telling the Russians then ask for forgiveness rather than permission, just like what Putin did to the Ukraine in his “Crimea River” invasion of the Crimea under Obama’s nose.
That assumes the ukranians wouldn’t just turn around and SELL those nukes..
“Moreover, while Ukraine is vital to Russia, it has never been vital to us.”
“Biden should tell Putin: The U.S. will not be issuing any NATO war guarantees to fight for Ukraine.”
I would agree. We do not need to engage in another worthless military engagement—especially if there is no benefit to doing so. Plus, I do not trust the present military hierarchy to handle a confrontation with Russia.
Same. I see NO BENEFIT to going to war over Ukraine.. LOTS of downsides though.
There was a bit of fun had at democrat Socialist – Communist, president Joe Biden’s expence had by Russia”s president, Vladimir putin. Democrat Socialist, Communist President Joe Biden made a comment when the subject came up that Putin wasn’t a Friend of Russisn president, Vladmir Putin’s and right away Vladmir Putin said that he was though, ” I am a ” Friend of democrat President Joe Biden’s , we’re Bestest Buddies. Just goes to show that you never know who your ” Bestest Buddy ” Is.
In response to Sonofthunder
your right in what you Stated, Our Military is ” Politically Correct , ” but America-s military aren-t competant and capable of winning AWar Any longer wit Russia., I think it was General Patten who once Declared that the United States Should Fight Russia after world war 2, While Russia was weak because we would have to fight Russia Sooner or later Anyway General Patten was Right in what he ten said about going to have to fight Russia Sooner or later but now Russia isn’t Weak and also has China (missile Strong ) on its side as well who will join Russia in any war with the United States more than likely. We would have been wise to have taken The advise of George Washington in his ” Farewell Address and to the advise of General George Patten I believe.
Patton was correct, WE SHOULD HAVE eliminated russia back then, RATHER THAN face the bear now.