The odds appear to be in President Trump’s favor as he faces a Senate trial Tuesday following his impeachment in the House. His chances of being reelected, in fact, are higher now than they have been in a year, says one unique source. The president remains “resilient” to an impeachment trial, according to US-Bookies, an online industry source that offers global betting statistics, averages and other data.
“The odds of Trump getting impeached by the Senate are 10/1, while his odds of not getting convicted are a much more likely 1/40,” the organization said in its analysis.
“It’s no surprise that the impeachment will have no legitimate effect on Trump finishing his term. Part of this is due to his Republican support, as the odds say that no Republican senators will vote against Trump at the impeachment trial, at 4/5 odds,” says Alex Donohue, an analyst for the organization.
“Trump’s odds to win the 2020 presidential election further emphasize his resilience to the pending impeachment trial, as the odds shortened from 6/5 to 4/5 since the beginning of December 2019. U.S. Bookies’ live election tracker gives. Trump a 52.5% chance to be reelected, the highest it’s been in the last 12 months,” the organization analysis said.
It also revealed that the chances of Mr. Trump resigning from office were 50/1.
IMPEACHMENT: GOING THROUGH THE MOTIONS
OK, so the impeachment drama gets amped up in a big way when President Trump’s trial in the Senate begins Tuesday. But is all much ado about nothing?
“From the beginning, Democrats have known they’re not getting 67 votes to remove in the Senate. President Trump has known this. The media has known this. It’s ultimately a fruitless exercise, unless you believe there’s a symbolic value to an impeachment that fails, setting down a record for history. Trump certainly isn’t going to come out of this process chastened, humbled, or defanged. The only thing that stops him being president is the decision of the voters in November,” writes Jim Geraghty, a columnist for National Review.
“Impeachment is moving at the pace of a kidney stone because far too many of the forces involved want it to move slowly. Democrats think they’re inflicting political damage on the president and GOP. (I’m not quite so convinced.) Trump thinks this is the greatest injustice in the history of mankind and he loves to talk about how unfairly he’s treated. The media is convinced we’re watching history being written. (Three impeachments in 45 years means it’s not that rare.),” Mr. Geraghty continues.
“We’ve seen both sides announce record fundraising from this. Impeachment keeps the bases riled up and enthusiastic. It enables both sides to say that they’re ‘fighters’ and that they’re ‘not backing down’ from the obvious malfeasance and injustice of the other side. It allows everyone involved to believe that they’re doing something of remarkable and historic importance, even though it has almost no impact on anyone outside the Beltway,” he concludes.
GIDDY IN THE GARDEN STATE
There is much talk that New Jersey — somehow, someway — could flip from blue to red, particularly after Rep. Jefferson Van Drew — once a New Jersey Democrat — left his party in December and became a Republican. President Trump personally welcomed him to the White House.
Mr. Van Drew reports that 100,000 people now are seeking tickets to one of Mr. Trump’s signature Keep America Great rallies, to be staged in Wildwood, New Jersey, on Jan. 28, in a venue that seats only 7,500. The last time a president visited the area was in 1891, when President Benjamin Harrison came to call. This event has become a record-breaker for local interest.
“It’s exciting, and I’m proud to say for this event — of all the events the president’s done — we’ve had the most ticket requests,” Mr. Van Drew tells Fox News.
This telling little detail appears to reflect shifting political sands in the state. New Jersey Women for Trump — a very vocal and engaged grassroots group — recently grew from a handful of interested organizers to more than 15,000 members in a matter of weeks.
“We are an independent support group for women and men who feel they are alone in their beliefs towards our president. Our goal is to tap into the silent majority of New Jersey women and men and let them know that they are not alone in their support of our president,” the organization says in its mission statement.
Mr. Van Drew, meanwhile, will be on the campaign rally stage with the president when the time comes.
“Trump brings out many emotions from people. His supporters are very passionate, and the folks that dislike him are very passionate. There are going to be a lot of emotions running wild on the 28th,” Wildwood Mayor Ernie Troiano Jr. predicts, according to the Cape May Herald, a local news organization.
THE DAVOS PRESS
The World Economic Forum 2020 descends Tuesday on Davos, Switzerland. Already the press is full of headlines revealing that the big event will focus on climate change — despite the fact that most of the high-profile guests will be flying in on private jets and spewing all matter of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. But no matter. Here’s just a few headlines from the last 24 hours:
“Climate change takes center stage at Davos” (The New York Times); “Davos bolsters security as protesters march toward venue” (U.S. News & World Report); “Davos says its focusing on the climate crisis, but its billionaires and world leaders are still arriving on private jets” (Business Insider); “Davos braces for Trump-Greta showdown as climate change tops agenda” (Deutsche Welle).
That is Greta Thunberg, by the way — the outspoken teen climate activist.
POLL DU JOUR
• 86% of U.S. adults say they are “very or fairly happy”; 94% of Republicans, 83% of independents and 83% of Democrats agree.
• 87% of conservatives, 86% of moderates, 84% of liberals, 86% of men and 86% of women also agree.
• 14% of U.S. adults say they are “not too happy”; 6% of Republicans, 18% of independents and 16% of Democrats agree.
• 13% of conservatives, 13% of moderates, 16% of liberals, 14% of men and 14% of women also agree.
Source: A Gallup Poll of 1,025 U.S. adults conducted Dec. 2-15 and released Monday
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