The romance between American voters and the bodacious, burgeoning Trump economy has intensified. The political implications are many — and none other than CNN spells things out.
“As 2019 comes to a close, the U.S. economy earns its highest ratings in almost two decades, potentially boosting President Trump in matchups against the Democrats vying to face him in next year’s election,” writes Grace Sparks, an associate producer for CNN.
It’s not just loyal Republicans who are swooning over the economy, though. A new poll from the network found that 76% of Americans overall say the economy is good, That includes 97% of Republicans, 88% of conservatives, 75% of independents, 80% of moderates, 62% of Democrats and 56% of liberals. Everybody’s pretty happy.
Another 68% overall say the economy will still be good a year from now. That includes 89% of Republicans, 84% of conservatives, 68% of independents, 69% of moderates, 52% of Democrats and 48% of liberals.
The CNN poll of 1,005 U.S. adults was conducted Dec. 12-15, right in the middle of the impeachment wars.
“As perceptions of the economy have brightened, the poll also shows matchups between the top Democrats vying for the 2020 nomination and Trump tightening. In October, four Democrats tested in hypothetical head-to-head contests with Trump among registered voters lead by anywhere from six to 10 percentage points. Now, just two of those candidates hold edges,” Ms. Sparks advises.
They are Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who lead by five and four percentage points, respectively.
“The tighter margins against the president come as favorability ratings appear to be sliding for the top Democratic contenders,” Ms. Sparks writes.
“Merry Impeachmas” remains the rallying cry of the moment among Democrats. The phrase, tweeted out by Washington Post reporter Rachael Bade, became a strategic social media hashtag.
And then there is “Merry Impeach-mess.”
The phrase was coined by Family Research Council president Tony Perkins, who says the “mess” part belongs to the Democrats.
“This entire impeachment charade isn’t serious and neither are its advocates. Think about it: This is the first modern impeachment without a scrap of bipartisan support. Not a single Republican voted in favor of the articles — and worse for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, multiple Democrats voted against them,” Mr. Perkins notes.
“So when Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch goes on television and wishes people a ‘Merry Christmas,’ the Left isn’t upset about December 25th. They’re upset about every other day of the year that President Trump is moving faith and the freedom of religion forward. When you get right down to it, liberals don’t have many options. This impeachment is their last-ditch effort to preserve the Left’s secular domination of the culture. And they have everything to lose,” Mr. Perkins explains.
THE BORDER EFFECT
The Federation for American Immigration Reform has revealed a potential effect of immigration on the U.S. House. Things could change.
“The presence of all immigrants (naturalized citizens, legal residents, and illegal aliens) and their U.S.-born minor children will redistribute 26 seats in the House in 2020. To put this number in perspective, changing the party of 21 members of the current Congress would flip the majority in the U.S. House,” the independent research organization says in a new report.
“Of the 26 seats that will be lost, 24 are from states that voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Of states that will gain House seats because of immigration, 19 seats will go to the solidly Democratic states of California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois. Texas is the only solidly Republican state that gains, while Florida is a swing state.
Elsewhere, Ohio will have three fewer seats in 2020, Michigan and Pennsylvania two fewer seats. Those states predicted to lose one state each: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, California will gain 11 seats, New York and Texas four each, Florida three; New Jersey two. Illinois and Massachusetts each gain one additional seat. The findings are based on the patterns of new arrivals. Most of the immigrant populations take up residence in a limited number of states.
“If immigrants were evenly spread throughout the country, they would have no impact on the distribution of House seats,” the research said.
BOOKMAKERS: TRUMP’S GONNA WIN
Despite officially being impeached, President Trump’s odds of reelection have slightly improved, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com. Over the past week, Mr. Trump went from 1/1 to 10/11 to win the 2020 presidential election, the organization said.
“Despite all the fanfare about the president’s impeachment, the reality is that this is highly unlikely to materialize into a conviction,” says industry analyst Alex Donohue. “The betting markets now suggest the upshot of this entire process is that Trump is more likely to win 2020.”
The bookmakers’ “live election tracker” currently gives Mr. Trump a 47.6% chance of winning, up from 40% at the beginning of December.
“The odds that Mr. Trump gets convicted by the Senate are currently 8/1. While this isn’t a dramatic long shot, the 1/16 odds that he won’t get convicted by the Senate suggest that it’s much more likely that the impeachment won’t pass. Trump also has 1/10 odds to finish his first term in office, indicating that he should be here to stay,” says Mr. Donahue.
POLL DU JOUR
• 33% of Americans are “paying a lot of attention to the 2020 presidential election; 31% of Republicans, 28% of independents and 42% of Democrats agree.
• 27% overall are “paying some attention” to the election; 29% of Republicans, 25% of independents and 28% of Democrats agree.
• 24% say they are “paying only a little attention” to the election; 28% of Republicans, 23% of independents and 22% of Democrats agree.
• 15% overall say they are paying “no attention at all” to the election; 12% of Republicans, 24% of independents and 8% of Democrats agree.
Source: AN ECONOMIST/YOUGOV poll of 1,500 U.S. ADULTS conducted Dec. 14-17.
• Kindly follow Jennifer Harper on Twitter @HarperBulletin.
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