Throughout this primary season, it’s been hard to get a read on not only what makes the candidates tick, but also, what makes the voters tick. Primary and caucus voters have been up, down, and all over the map. However, after Rick Santorum’s victories in Alabama and Mississippi, the exit polls show a clear moderate vs. conservative split.
First, some election results. Mitt Romney won the caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa, but the real prizes up for grabs were the primary elections in Alabama and Mississippi. Santorum won both by the following margins:
Alabama
Rick Santorum: 35% (212,343)
Newt Gingrich: 29% (179,919)
Mitt Romney: 29% (178,601)
Ron Paul: 5% (30,494)Mississippi
Rick Santorum: 33% (93,182)
Newt Gingrich: 31% (88,676)
Mitt Romney: 30% (85,922)
Ron Paul: 4% (12,498)
In each case, Santorum won and was followed by Newt Gingrich. Ron Paul finished last in both contests and has yet to win a primary or a caucus.
What a primary season. From prior exit polling throughout the process, we have seen some remarkable results: Catholics have voted for a Mormon. Evangelicals have voted for a Catholic. Tea Partiers (the ultimate outsiders) were voting for Newt Gingrich (the ultimate insider). The trend was that there was no trend.
However, in Alabama and Mississippi, it was clear that if voters considered themselves moderate, they voted for Romney. If they considered themselves conservative, they voted for Santorum (and Gingrich). In Alabama, moderates favored Romney by 42% compared to Santorum’s 26%. Those labeling themselves as “somewhat conservative” split evenly with 31% going for Romney, and 31% going for Santorum. The “very conservative” voters went for Santorum with 41% to Romney’s 18%.
In Mississippi, it was a similar story. Moderates went for Romney over Santorum by 42% to 24%. Somewhat conservative voters were almost split, going for Romney 33% to 31%. Very conservative voters (who made up 42% of the total vote) went for Santorum 39% to Romney’s 22%.
Tea Party supporters went for Santorum or Gingrich while those who oppose the Tea Party movement went for Romney in both states. Isn’t it odd how just a few weeks ago, the media coverage (I was watching CNN and Fox) were talking about how Romney was starting to consolidate support across Tea Party and moderate/conservative lines. It just goes to show that each state must be taken on its own, and there is a definite difference between conservative southern states, moderate North Eastern states, the Midwest, and so on.
So… is there anything that we can gather from these elections? Sure there is. First, outside of South Carolina which was early in the process and his home state of Georgia, Newt Gingrich has not been able to make the case as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. He simply hasn’t. Up until Tuesday, he appeared to be fading badly. Neighboring states of Alabama and Mississippi have given him a boost, but in each case, he lost to Santorum. Given all four candidates, the conservatives are supporting Santorum.
The moderate versus conservative battle is real and ongoing. Romney has not been able to seal the deal with conservatives, just as Santorum has not been able to do the same with moderates. The exit polls from Tuesday night reveal this split more clearly than ever.
Romney still has one big plus in his column. Voters who feel that beating Barack Obama is their number one priority overwhelmingly go for Romney. In Alabama the split was 51% to 15% (Romney vs. Santorum). In Mississippi, the split was 46% to 22%.
It is certainly not a Romney versus Santorum contest yet. It might never be. But it is certainly a match-up between conservative voters and moderate voters.
How do you think it will go from here?
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