Last Updated:November 17 @ 07:57 am

Predictions, Predictions, Predictions... Who will win?

By Bobby Eberle

It's finally here! Election Day, 2012. After all the campaigning, all the debates, all the ads... we are finally at decision day. Who will win? That's the big question, and there are plenty of people out there with an opinion, including me. There are many factors that must fall into place, including STRONG get-out-the-vote efforts, but if all goes right, Mitt Romney will be our new president.

Let's start with a baseline. Without too much doubt, I believe we can put the following states into either the Romney or Obama column:

Romney - 191: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Obama - 196: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Oregon (7), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

That brings us to 387 out of a possible 538 electoral votes. So who gets the remaining 151? After a strong effort to win back key states that went for Bush in 2000 but did not go for McCain in 2008, I believe Romney will pick up the following: Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virgina (13). I believe Romney will also win back New Hampshire (4).

That puts Romney at 252.

I think Obama will win Michigan (16) and New Mexico (5).

That puts Obama at 217.

Let's turn our focus to the battleground of all battleground states this year: Ohio. The candidates have been running neck and neck, but the momentum has swung back in Romney's favor. When the counting is done, I predict Ohio (18) will go for Romney. Since he stood at 252, Ohio gives him the magic number of 270 and makes him the next president of the United States.

However, I think the momentum that is being felt in Ohio is not isolated. It is happening all across the country. I predict Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and Wisconsin (10) will also go for Romney.

That puts Romney at 295 with Obama still at 217.

Only Pennsylvania and Nevada have not been picked yet. These are tough to predict. I would LOVE for Romney to break the 300 level, and I think it's entirely possible, but obviously he'd have to win one or both of these states. Nevada reelected Harry Reid in 2010, and the union machine in the Las Vegas area is strong. Can it be done? Yes. Will it be done? Hmmmm... not sure. In both 2000 and 2004, Nevada went for Bush. In 2008, it went for Obama.

Polls have tightened dramatically in Pennsylvania, but the state has not voted for the Republican since 1988. Could this be the year of change? Perhaps.

It would be safe for me to put both states in the Obama column and predict a final tally of Romney 295 to Obama 243. But, I'll take a chance. After all, that's what predictions are all about. I'll save Pennsylvania for another election cycle, but I'll say that Nevada goes for Romney.

Final Prediction: Romney 301 - Obama 237

Karl Rove predicts 285 for Romney and 253 for Obama. Rove has the Eberle picks except for Nevada and Wisconsin going for Obama.

Dick Morris predicts 325 for Romney and 213 for Obama. Morris' differences from my picks are that he puts Pennsylvania and Minnesota in the Romney column and Nevada in Obama's. Minnesota does have a marriage amendment on the ballot which should bring out the conservatives, but I don't think it's enough to win over the state for Romney.

Michael Barone predicts 325 for Romney and 223 for Obama. Barone "goes out on a limb" and thinks Pennsylvania will go for Romney. He has Nevada going for Obama.

So those are the picks. My "safer" bet is 295 - 243. But my heart says go for 300+. Maybe Pennsylvania will break a 24 year trend, but I'll pick Nevada to flip back from 2008. Romney 301 vs Obama 237.

What do you think?

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27 Comments

  1. makemelafComment by makemelaf
    November 6, 2012 @ 8:37 am

    This is gr8! I guess the poll averages, (ie. Real Clear Politics) cannot be relied on. Obama will get to 290 without Virginia or Florida.

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    • tas1357Comment by tas1357
      November 6, 2012 @ 9:21 am

      I hope you are both right on who will win. I had it at a closer race at 273 to 265.

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    • susieqComment by susieq
      November 6, 2012 @ 9:57 am

      Romney will win. People are coming out of the woodwork to vote. Bye Bye Barack!

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    • inluminatuoComment by inluminatuo
      November 6, 2012 @ 12:52 pm

      It’s no longer just the economy, stupid” Thinking people are NOW understanding and agreeing with Mitt that it never was! “It’s the Dishonesty Stupid” When Mitt fixes the dishonesty, all else will heal,,,The Clintonian and Obamanite Soldiers of Sodom have met our avenging Angel,,, just watch Hillary as he turns her into an electoral pillar of salt, while the Hopes for devilish change of the other two pointy eared Progressives go up in smoke while Obama and Clinton ride the lightening.

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    • LAPhilComment by LAPhil
      November 6, 2012 @ 1:24 pm

      How do you figure that, makemelaf? You won’t be laughing tonight when Romney wins.

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    • LAPhilComment by LAPhil
      November 6, 2012 @ 1:28 pm

      tas1357, I guess you didn’t catch that makemelaf said Obama would win, not Romney.

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    • mcrankComment by mcrank
      November 6, 2012 @ 4:49 pm

      I hope Romney gets AT LEAST what he needs to secure victory—but I would LOVE to see him trounce Obama. I want the media to have to eat crow and report it and I want Obama to have to admit defeat—publicly.

      I want it BAD!

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    • theoldsargeComment by theoldsarge
      November 6, 2012 @ 10:29 pm

      Not enough came out of the woodwork. As of 11:27PM Obama and the Democrats are kicking some serious butt. They picked up more Senate seats and looks like they will retake the house. It’s 2008 all over again. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

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  2. Ollie_FanComment by Ollie_Fan
    November 6, 2012 @ 10:18 am

    I don’t care if its 325 or 270, I just want Romney as President. A shame that gains in the Senate may not come to fruition this year though, I was really hoping the GOP would take Congress.
    What bugs me is the Republican bigshots told us to accept Romney as the executive candidate during the primaries or we would lose the Senate race? To lose both will be devastating.

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  3. Jota_Comment by Jota_
    November 6, 2012 @ 11:29 am

    Based on how Congressional Districts voted in the past election (2010), and state wide for Senator and Governor

    Data presented in this order
    Congressmen; & Senators; & Governor

    Percentage is for Republican for all three offices, unless noted

    Florida (29), 19R, 8D; 1R, 1D; R – 30 total 20R 67%
    North Carolina (15) 6R, 7D; 1R, 1D; D – 16 total 7R 44%
    Virgina (13). 8R, 3D; 0R, 2D; R – 14 total 9R 64%

    Ohio (18), 12R, 4D; 1R, 1D; R – 19 total 14R 74%

    New Hampshire (4). 2R, 0D; 1R, 1 D; D – 5 total 2R 40% (however 100% of representives were elected 2 years ago)

    Colorado (9), 4R, 3D; 0R, 2D; D – 10 total 4R 40% (57% for representives)
    Iowa (6), 2R, 2D; 1R, 1D; R – 7 total 4R 57%
    Wisconsin (10) 5R, 3D; 1R, 1D; R – 11 total 7R 63%

    Agree, except Romney will nor carry North Carolina so 285

    And possibly will not carry Wisconsin,

    Romney wins with 270

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    • LAPhilComment by LAPhil
      November 6, 2012 @ 12:04 pm

      Romney will definitely get North Carolina.

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  4. wdjincComment by wdjinc
    November 6, 2012 @ 12:20 pm

    I hope (with a prayer) that you are right. We cannot afford 4 more years with Obama in charge of our country.

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  5. cfulbrightComment by cfulbright
    November 6, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

    What about Hawaii? I assume it foes for Obama, but please confirm.

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    • inluminatuoComment by inluminatuo
      November 6, 2012 @ 12:57 pm

      Hawaiians told him he can only win their vote when he comes up with a valid I.D. Like maybe an unadulterated Birth Certificate. This is Hawaii, not the streets of Chicago.

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    • canada3dayerComment by canada3dayer
      November 6, 2012 @ 5:34 pm

      glad to see I’m not the only one that noticed Hawaii’s absence. I made a sheet from an article on Saturday listing which states would most likely go to which candidate, and the ones that were a toss-up. each candidate had exactly 191 electoral votes, tho Romney had more states in his “pretty much definite” column, 23 to 16, with 12 in the “either way” column. Obama’s got the heavyweight EC votes states of California, Illinois and New York pretty much solidly in his column. tonight, as the tallies come in, I’m gonna do a colour change on each one as it’s finished.

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  6. LAPhilComment by LAPhil
    November 6, 2012 @ 1:30 pm

    I voted a little while ago and it was really good to see the poll workers checking everyone’s driver’s license. They were lax about that in the past. And no one protested that their vote was being supressed!

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  7. LAPhilComment by LAPhil
    November 6, 2012 @ 1:33 pm

    One more post and then I’ll shut up. Here’s an interactive map you can play around with to see the possible electoral vote outcomes. This configuration is how I think it will end up: http://www.270towin.com/

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    • tas1357Comment by tas1357
      November 6, 2012 @ 3:17 pm

      Interesting site…Thanks.

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  8. phunyfarmComment by phunyfarm
    November 6, 2012 @ 2:55 pm

    Thanks, needed the little “pick me up”, been a long day.
    Took 4 folks to the polls today! Peaceful in my neck of the woods (& it IS rural). Keep up the prayers & faith! Vote R/R – TODAY!

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  9. thomasjeffersonComment by thomasjefferson
    November 6, 2012 @ 3:10 pm

    Do Not believe the spin mongers, get your *** out there and VOTE. If you don’t vote you have no right to complain about the outcome.

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    • capricorn1Comment by capricorn1
      November 7, 2012 @ 6:31 am

      IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELEY BE OUTLAWED TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OBAMA.this loss is on the GOP.the gop has a weak spine and will not stand up to the left nor will it play election hardball,the left gets elected on lie,after lie to the people and the gop has no answer,its time for the tea party to take over the gop and flush out the rinos or we wont ever win another election ever.

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  10. Bob BarberComment by Bob Barber
    November 6, 2012 @ 3:31 pm

    You people are hilarious. No way Twitt Rmoney wins. OBAMA, OBAMA, OBAMA. Read it and weep. You’re still fooling yourselves in the face of the obvious. I’ll laugh now! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA and later. Hillary in 2016 AND 2020. Repub mismanagement WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN FOR YEARS! Americans have learned from Hoover and Bush that Republicans are incompetent. Their policies always fail!

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    • LAPhilComment by LAPhil
      November 6, 2012 @ 3:41 pm

      You’d be hilarious too if you weren’t so pathetically stupid. Hillary will never be President. Do you realize even if got elected in 2016 and served two terms she’d be 77 by the time she got out of office? You want to post here again and apologize if Romney wins? Didn’t think so.

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    • esekhopkinsComment by esekhopkins
      November 6, 2012 @ 5:14 pm

      @Barber
      And I suppose that the wilson, roosevelt, kennedy, carter, clinton and muslim administrations were paragons of virtue? I seem to remember that clinton was the only sitting president convicted of a crime; that at the end of wilson’s term he was so ill that his wife was in charge; that fdr began the inclusion of many, many communists in his administration; that carter was so inept that his solution to high energy prices was to turn down the thermostat and wear a sweater to keep warm; and that this muslim has not only filled his administration with card carrying communists, but with associates of the muslim brotherhood and now rules over the absolute most corrupt regime in our history. Ahhh, virtue.

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  11. boogieComment by boogie
    November 6, 2012 @ 4:41 pm

    I hope your predictions are correct; as much as anyone else. It will confirm to me that there are still enough Americans with moral integrity and intelligence to admit when they have made a mistake. My biggest fear is that most people today don’t want to own their mistakes. If we don’t own our mistakes; we are destined to repeat them over and over. We want to give it another try and hope it turns out right. Einstein said; “the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over expecting a different result” We all wanted to put the shame of racial injustice behind us and show the world and ourselves that we have matured as a nation/people. WE did that by giving this Man a chance in spite of the facts that he didn’t have the experience to do the job. Now it’s no longer about racism. It’s about powers and principalities in high places. Anyone who would vote for a Muslim, Socialist, for the Presidency of our (Christian) Nation knowing now what we know is a Traitor and a fool. If it happens again and He stays in office I will find another Christian Nation to call my Home/Country.

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  12. DonComment by wyatt48
    November 6, 2012 @ 5:18 pm

    My polling station was checking I.D. as they always do. I am pleased with that.

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  13. bizzybuzzerComment by bizzybuzzer
    November 6, 2012 @ 6:42 pm

    Me thinks that this election will tell us a lot about our nation. Not only that, will change this country from bad to in repair or bad to salvage. If it goes to salvage all the Gimmie’s are going to lose all the goodies they hoped for. If it goes into repair we will all have to pay for the carelessness in the past 15 or 20 years. In either case I sure am glad the campaigning is over.

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