Analysis: Iran in no hurry to cut nuclear deal
By BRIAN MURPHY
Associated Press
November 2, 2009
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- If Western leaders were still puzzling over Iran's approach to nuclear talks, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered a timely tutorial.
It came complete with a dismissive sound bite -- comparing Iran's foes to a mosquito -- a bit of boasting about Iran's prestige and a touch of self-analysis. Iran's president said Sunday that Tehran doesn't trust the West to keep its promises.
Added together, it helps explain Iran's zigzag reactions last week to a U.N.-drafted nuclear pact, and why Iran is in no hurry to cut a deal.
For days, Iran had hinted that it would back the essential element of the U.N. offer -- to send about 70 percent of its low-enriched uranium stockpile out of the country -- but wanted some changes to the formula.
Those changes turned out to be more like a full counter proposal.
The response Thursday -- as described by diplomats -- essentially seeks to keep the uranium in Iran. That could be an ultimate deal breaker, because the West wants to pare down Iran's store of low-enriched uranium to a point where it cannot make a nuclear warhead -- at least temporarily.
But no one is ready to call it quits yet. Washington and its allies are hoping Iran softens its position. On Monday, Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told reporters in Malaysia that bargaining was still possible.
Asked if Tehran has rejected the deal, Mottaki said: "No."
This may be welcome news in Western capitals. Yet many will see it as suspiciously like another stalling tactic.
Iran's negotiations with the West have been a master class in slo-mo diplomacy. Since uranium enrichment was restarted three years ago, Iran has been able to draw out a showdown by offering just enough to the West when the heat became uncomfortable.
"Iran believes time is on their side for now," said Mustafa Alani, a regional analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.
That is because there's little in the U.N. plan that Iran likes and no serious domestic pressure for unpopular compromises. Standing firm, meanwhile, brings some immediate dividends.
Ahmadinejad and his hard-line allies can claim the high ground as defenders of Iran's national dignity and strides in nuclear technology. It's particularly tempting for Ahmadinejad, a rare opportunity to cross the political no man's land after June's disputed elections. Even his harshest opponents take pride in Iran's nuclear accomplishments.
Ahmadinejad played this to full effect Sunday. In a posting on a government Web site, he was quoted as describing the nuclear negotiations as a match between Goliath Iran and an annoying insect.
"While enemies have used all their capacities ... the Iranian nation is standing powerfully and (Iran's foes) are like a mosquito," he said.
He further scolded the West for what he called a history of broken promises. Iran, he said, "looks at the talks with no trust."
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