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Analysis: 'Hillary Democrats' could be up for grabs
By NEDRA PICKLER
Associated Press
May 12, 2008

Page 2 of 2

In the general election, Democrats trying to attract white, working-class voters immediately start at a disadvantage. The party's presidential candidates have not won a majority of white voters in more than three decades, according to exit polls over the years. The only Democrat to come close was Bill Clinton, who lost to Bob Dole among whites by 3 percentage points in 1996 and to President George H.W. Bush by 1 point in 1992.

This year, whites who do not have college degrees lean slightly toward the GOP, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News survey conducted last month, with 43 percent calling themselves Republicans and 38 percent considering themselves Democrats.

Ruy Teixeira, author of ''America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters,'' said Democrats have a better chance of winning more votes from this demographic this year because of the troubled economy, the war in Iraq and rising health care costs and millions who remain uninsured.

''These are voters who haven't been doing too well throughout the whole Bush administration and now are really sort of beside themselves, don't have a lot of faith in the Republican brand of economic management,'' said Teixeira, a Democrat not supporting either Obama or Clinton. ''The question is can McCain push other issues in such a way as to prevent the Democrats from taking advantage of their built-in advantage on the issues that are going to be current in this election.''

Black said if McCain is to win over any ''Hillary Democrats,'' he'll have to work for them and earn them, and he plans to do that.

''I think you'll see particularly his economic message and his health care message in very populous terms, and that he'll be talking to and meeting with people in that category,'' Black said. ''A lot of these voters are conservative. A lot of them believe in a strong national defense.''

They also believe in their guns, said strategist Mudcat Sanders, who advises Democrats on rural issues.

''He's got one thing he's got to do and he's got to say it clearly. He's got to say, 'I'm not going to take anybody's gun,''' Sanders said. Obama has done that at times, such as when he was campaigning for Western voters. ''It's not a litmus test. It shows you are in line with the culture.''

Sanders said if Obama does that and spends time getting to know rural voters, he can win them over.

''He's got to embrace the culture is what he's got to do,'' Sanders said. ''The boy's IQ looks like Pete Rose's liftime batting average. It's off the charts. But at the same token, that comes off to us as big city. The big city thing John Kerry never could shake, I think, is Obama's problem right now. But I think he can get those voters and lot more if he just gets out there among the people so they can get to know him.''

---

Associated Press Writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.

---

EDITOR'S NOTE: Nedra Pickler has covered presidential politics for The Associated Press since 2002.

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Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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