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Analysis: 'Hillary Democrats' could be up for grabs
By NEDRA PICKLER
Associated Press
May 12, 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) -- With the racially tinged Democratic race drawing to an awkward close, Barack Obama and John McCain face the challenge of winning over ''Hillary Democrats'' -- the white, working-class voters who favored the former first lady over Obama's historic candidacy.
Obama and McCain clearly have set their sights on each other, a recognition of the long odds Clinton faces in trying to capture the Democratic presidential nomination. The McCain campaign figures some of her supporters might be up for grabs and won't necessarily vote Democratic in the general election in November.
''I've been saying for a year that you never count a Clinton out, but now people are laughing at me so I guess I've got to stop,'' McCain strategist Charlie Black said Friday. ''But if you look at the blue-collar Democratic votes that Mrs. Clinton's been getting and then look at their opinions of Obama in these public polls, there's clearly an opportunity for McCain.''
Clinton won more than two-thirds of the white voters without college degrees in the last three primaries -- Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana -- according to exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks. When those Clinton supporters were asked who they would vote for in an Obama-McCain matchup, just fewer than half said they would support Obama. Three in 10 said they would vote for McCain and the rest said they wouldn't vote for either.
Shrugging off those numbers, Obama spokesman Bill Burton expressed confidence that Democratic voters will unite behind the nominee. He argued that the Illinois senator also would attract ''droves of independent voters and disaffected Republicans that he has already won over all across the country.''
Clinton is trying to use her advantage with white working-class voters to persuade party leaders to disregard Obama's overall advantage at the ballot and nominate her. Her campaign circulated a letter Friday from 16 members of Congress arguing she's the strongest candidate to have at the top of the ticket in the fall because she has won most rural and suburban congressional swing districts.
Clinton told USA Today in an article published Thursday that AP exit polls ''found how Senator Obama's support among working, hardworking Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.''
''There's a pattern emerging here,'' she said.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres said that based on focus groups he has conducted in swing states, including Missouri, Michigan and Florida, Clinton's claim that she would do better than Obama with blue-collar white voters is believable.
He said those voters support her because of the prosperous economic times they experienced when her husband was president. He also said they are uncomfortable with Obama because of his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who created a furor with his divisive comments, and questions about Obama's patriotism.
''It's cultural,'' Ayres said.
The older those voters are, the more likely they are to support Clinton. Whites without college degrees under 30 support Obama, although to a lesser extent than the college educated.
>> Continued -- Page 1 2
Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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