California dreaming _ can McCain win?
By MICHAEL R. BLOOD
Associated Press
July 8, 2008
Page 2 of 2
"While Democrats dominate, we've also seen the right Republican can win in California," said campaign adviser Adam Mendelsohn.
For California voters "the overriding thing is the desire for change. It's so powerful here, it's almost insurmountable," said Mark DiCamillo of the independent Field Poll, which closely tracks the state's political climate.
Mix in the troubled economy, and "the outlook for Republicans is dismal," DiCamillo said. "For McCain to even get close in California would be a major success."
McCain's advisers are guarded in their predictions and there is no indication yet how much money, if any, the campaign will gamble in the Golden State. McCain won the California GOP primary in February with an all-volunteer operation, but Republican turnout was anemic compared to the number of Democrats who went to the polls.
In a briefing last month, Davis did not include California on a list of key battlegrounds. But he suggested McCain could be a surprise in a state where the fastest growing political party is no party at all; independents make up about two of ten voters in California.
Republicans barred independents from the primary in February, a group Democrats allowed to vote. That means McCain must convince some voters who've already cast votes for a Democrat to flip.
"This is a group of voters where John McCain has a unique appeal, and where we can make inroads in this historically Democratic state," Davis said, alluding to McCain's reputation for departing from Republican orthodoxy. "We need to reach out to independents and disaffected Democrats, because they now represent the largest portion of swing voters and the greatest electoral bloc up for grabs."
President Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, was the last Republican to carry California, which for years favored GOP candidates like Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon.
But since that win in 1988 the population growth in Los Angeles, San Francisco and other urban centers, a jump in Hispanic residents and the state's identification with environmental conservation has tended to benefit Democrats, particularly in presidential races. In addition, Democrat Bill Clinton showered attention on the state during his two presidential terms.
Republican registration now stands at 32 percent, compared to 44 percent for Democrats. Independents account for 19 percent.
Enthusiasm for McCain, especially among conservatives, is a question mark. George H.W. Bush won 241,000 votes in the 1988 primary in Orange County, long considered the state's Republican heartland. McCain, in the February primary, got 142,000 votes there.
McCain's record of working with Democrats on immigration reform and campaign finance and of breaking from the White House on global warming could help him with some important voter groups.
Recent history isn't encouraging, however. Bush adviser Karl Rove promised to launch a huge grassroots campaign in California in 2004, which never happened. Bush spent more than $15 million in California in 2000, then lost to Gore by 12 points.
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