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LOS ANGELES (AP) -- John McCain is starting a California campaign that might already be over.

The Republican presidential candidate opens a handful of political offices this week in the nation's most populous state, the historical turf of Reagan and Nixon that in recent years has become a Democratic fortress in presidential contests.

The Arizona senator boasts that he can win California's 55 electoral votes, the biggest prize on Nov. 4, but he's running as the Republican successor to GOP President George Bush, whose approval rating is at an all-time low in the state. Three of four voters say the nation is on the wrong track, and McCain's opposition to abortion rights and his support for the Iraq war and offshore drilling leave him out of step with a potentially decisive swath of Californians.

A Republican hasn't carried the state in a presidential contest in two decades, and Al Gore and John Kerry notched double-digit victories here. Democratic voter registration is inching up, while the Republican slice of the electorate is shrinking. The growing ranks of Hispanic voters -- possibly 20 percent of the California vote this November -- tilt Democratic.

The numbers are so daunting for a Republican that Bush didn't bother to contest the state in 2004.

Beyond the political environment -- McCain campaign manager Rick Davis calls it "among the worst in modern history for Republicans" -- McCain's biggest problem in California could be a tight budget.

Television is typically the only way to reach voters across the vast state, home to 38 million people. A statewide run of TV ads can cost several million dollars a week, and those prices could be an impediment for McCain in a race where Obama is expected to have a financial edge.

McCain "is likely to get outspent 2-1 nationally. He's going to have to be very careful about which states he targets," said Michael Schroeder, a former state Republican chairman who was political director for Mitt Romney's California campaign.

For now, "he has no chance here because he's not trying," Schroeder said.

The campaign offices opening Monday are being financed by the California Republican Party, not the McCain campaign. They will serve as headquarters for McCain's workers and volunteers in the state, as well as other GOP candidates.

McCain has a single paid staffer in California.

For evidence of an opening, McCain supporters point to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican with moderate social views, celebrity credentials and a business-friendly outlook who is in his second term. They see McCain as sharing some of his traits -- a willingness to work across party lines, a green streak on the environment and centrist appeal. But Schwarzenegger supports abortion rights, as does the other statewide Republican officeholder, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.

Schwarzenegger's 2006 campaign spent millions to drive up Republican turnout, relying on a vast computerized storehouse of voter information. But a key to the governor's victory was winning more than half the independent vote and one of four Democratic votes, a benchmark that could be out of reach for McCain in a year when voters want dramatic change in Washington.

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