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Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
Associated Press
July 2, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Voting by Hispanics surged in the last congressional elections, showing strength that could swing this year's presidential vote in closely contested states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

A government report released Tuesday shows that 5.6 million Hispanics voted in the 2006 general election, an increase of 18 percent over 2002, the previous year for a federal election without a presidential race on the ballot. That compares to a 7 percent increase among white voters and a 5 percent increase for black voters.

"For years they called the Latinos the sleeping giant. Well, they woke us up," said Luis Vera, general counsel for the League of United Latin American Citizens, or LULAC.

Vera said the debate over illegal immigration has energized Hispanic voters, a trend he expects to continue this year.

The presidential candidates are taking notice. Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama both addressed the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials last week and both are scheduled to speak at the LULAC national convention next week.

Hispanics made up only 6 percent of American voters in 2006, according to the report by the Census Bureau. But their numbers are big enough to be decisive in several battleground states, especially in a tight race.

Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida all have a significant number of Hispanic voters. President Bush narrowly won all four states in 2004, and they could all be hotly contested this year.

"When you look at the battleground states, at least four of them are very heavily Hispanic," said Simon Rosenberg, head of a think tank called NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network. "We will see more (campaign) media heaped on Hispanic voters than at any time in American history."

Hispanics, long considered part of the Democratic base, have become swing voters in recent elections. President Bush did well among Hispanic voters in his two presidential victories. But many swung back to the Democrats in 2006, when many Republicans staked out tough positions against illegal immigration. The Democrats regain control of both houses of Congress.

McCain and Obama have both supported comprehensive packages that included an eventual path to citizenship for the estimated 12 million immigrants in the country illegally. McCain, however, now says he would secure the border first.

A recent AP-Yahoo News poll showed that Obama leads McCain among Hispanics, 47 percent to 22 percent with 26 percent undecided.

Still, Obama, who is trying to become the first black president, doesn't have a lock on the Hispanic vote. During the Democratic primary, Hispanics preferred rival Hillary Rodham Clinton to Obama by nearly 2-to-1.

The Census data comes from a national survey which asks 50,000 residents after each federal election whether they were registered to vote and whether they voted. The survey does not ask about candidate preferences or political affiliations.

The Associated Press compared voting statistics from the 2006 and 2002 surveys. The 2004 survey was not included because voter turnout in presidential elections is much higher than in the off years.

Voter turnout was up for all racial and ethnic groups in 2006. Overall, 48 percent of voting-age citizens cast a ballot in 2006, the highest percentage in a non-presidential year since 1994, when the Republicans took control of Congress.

Hispanics are the nation's largest and fastest growing minority group, though they have been slow to gain political power nationally because only 60 percent of adult Hispanics are U.S. citizens, according to the Census Bureau.

Both political parties, however, see their voting strength growing.

"Just looking at the demographics, whichever party ends up winning the Latino vote will be the majority party in the 21st century," Rosenberg said.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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