AP-Yahoo poll shows McCain winning back unhappy Republicans
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON
Associated Press
April 17, 2008
Page 2 of 2
Voters at this stage in a campaign commonly focus more on candidates' personal qualities. That usually changes as the general election approaches and they pay more attention to issues and partisan loyalty -- meaning that McCain's prospects could fade at a time when the public is deeply unhappy with the war, the staggering economy and Bush.
For now, more than one in 10 who weren't backing the unnamed Republican candidate in last November's survey are supporting McCain, a shift partly offset by a smaller number of former undecideds now embracing Obama or Clinton. Of those now backing McCain, about one-third did not support the generic GOP candidate last November.
Among people who have moved toward McCain, about two-thirds are discontented Bush voters, with many calling themselves independents but leaning Republican.
About half of this group say they are conservative, yet their views on issues are more moderate than many in the party, with some opposing the war in Iraq. They have favorable but not intensely enthusiastic views of McCain -- for example, two-thirds find him likeable while far fewer find him compassionate or refreshing.
''He's known, he's a veteran,'' said David Tucker, a retired Air Force technician from Alexandria, La., and Bush voter who was undecided last November but has ruled out Obama and Clinton. ''I understand him better.''
Around a third of the voters newly supporting McCain lean Democratic and mostly backed Democrat John Kerry in 2004. They are moderates who disapprove of Bush and the war in Iraq, but find McCain likeable, much more so than they did last November.
''He is more open-minded'' than Obama and Clinton, said Darlene Heins, 46, a Democrat from North Brunswick, N.J., who has moved from undecided to backing McCain. ''He directly answers questions, which tells me he's listening.''
Many McCain-backing Democrats express one consistent concern about McCain -- his age.
''Let's face it, we're not getting any younger,'' said retired accountant Sheldon Rothman of Queens, N.Y., who like McCain is 71. ''There are too many imponderables when you get to that age, especially with the stress of the presidency.''
Whether those now switching to McCain will stay that way once the Democrats choose a candidate is what the fall campaign will be about.
''McCain has a history of doing well with independent voters,'' said GOP pollster David Winston. He said voters' preference for an unnamed Democratic candidate but McCain's strong performance against Obama and Clinton means ''Democrats have an advantage their candidates are not taking advantage of.''
Democratic pollster Alan Secrest said the contrasting numbers mean that while the voters' overall mood favors Democrats, they are still taking the measure of Clinton and Obama.
''The Democrats will have to earn their way this fall,'' he said.
The AP-Yahoo survey of 1,844 adults was conducted from April 2-14 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.
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AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
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Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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