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The letter notes the effectiveness of Pakistani military operations, yet there is little evidence to support that idea, Brown said, except for a three- to four-week period in May when Pakistani anti-terrorist operations were conducted with U.S. assistance.

The Zawahiri letter, if genuine, makes no mention of al Qaeda working "within Iranian strategy" in Iraq, Brown said. That strategy and the accompanying tactics, he added, are serving the terror network's own goals in Iraq as well as those of Iran.

"[B]y declaring all-out war on the Shi'a, [al Qaeda is] driving the Shi'a population further into the hands of the Iranians, who can provide them with security through both their own organizations and what I would venture to say is their either formal or informal control over al Qaeda," Brown said.

"Therefore, the areas that cooperate with the U.S. get hit and the areas that cooperate with Iran become safe havens. This is in addition to their increasing control over the social services, security organizations and most importantly, the political institutions on both the national and local levels," he added.

Aegis Defense Services, a London-based consultancy, has argued that the letter, addressed to Zarqawi, was actually sent to Abu Musab al-Suri, a Syrian who acted as an intermediary for al Qaeda in Europe during the 1990s and whose whereabouts are unknown, according to the Financial Times of London.

A Washington Post editorial by David Ignatius cited skepticism voiced by Juan Cole, professor of history at the University of Michigan. Cole had contended on his website that the salutation of the letter was Shiite, not Sunni and may have been the work of Iranian operatives.

There is speculation about the potential political fallout, especially for John Negroponte, U.S. director of national intelligence, if the letter is discovered to be propaganda generated by the U.S.

The cabinet-level position that Negroponte holds coordinates all 15 components of the American intelligence community. It was created in response to one of the recommendations of the 9/11 commission. Negroponte serves as the principal intelligence adviser to the president and the statutory intelligence advisor to the National Security Council.

"If and when this breaks, the blowback of this kind of American hand-in-the-cookie jar could severely hurt us in the Middle East, Europe and with an already skeptical American media that would likely declare all-out war on the administration over this," the Cybercast News Service source requiring anonymity said.

Ulph added that "pending further confirmation of origin, it would be wise to treat the letter with skepticism."

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