Other Columns by Paul M. Weyrich
Paul M. Weyrich Bio

Printer-Friendly Version

I was in a meeting a short time ago at which the topic was the 2008 elections. The remarkable 2004 elections were so recent, the discussion seemed premature. Yet in this non-stop political world of ours, there no longer is breathing room between elections. The discussion pointed to the fact that conservatives have no obvious choice for the GOP nomination in 2008.

The last time that happened was in 1988. The reason George Herbert Walker Bush got the nomination as easily as he did was because conservatives were in every camp. Pat Robertson initially scared some of the pols by doing well in Michigan and Iowa. Because Bob Dole's pollster told him he was going to win the New Hampshire primary and he didn't he is still bitter about it to this day. Lots of conservatives were in his camp, too. Many were in Jack Kemp's camp. Although not as well known as a conservative, Pete DuPont had his share. Bush was the most moderate of all those candidates. But he had been a loyal soldier to Ronald Reagan and he presented himself as a third term for the beloved president. So with conservatives split so many ways, Bush was easily able to navigate the terrain.

If all of the prominent conservatives (especially those with grassroots followings) would have gotten behind a single candidate might Bush have been denied the nomination in 1988? It was entirely possible. Bush never got an absolute majority vote until the very late South Dakota primary and by then many candidates had dropped from the race.

The fear among conservative leaders is that if we all don't get behind a single candidate, a Rudy Giuliani, someone quite unacceptable to us would manage to get the nomination the same way Bush got it, by taking a plurality of the vote while everyone else splits the balance.

It will be very difficult to get conservatives behind a single candidate precisely because there is no obvious choice. Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas intends to run. He has a solid record but it is difficult to run while serving in the Senate. It is said that Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania wants to run. But first he must win another Senate term in 2006 against Bob Casey, Jr., the son of the revered moderate two-term Governor of Pennsylvania who was refused time at the Democrat Party's 1996 convention solely because he was pro-life. Already Santorum is running behind in several polls. And there is Majority Leader Bill Frist. Frist intends to leave the Senate after 2006, so of the three, everything being equal, he would probably have the best chance as he would not be tied down by Senate votes and obligations. Frist would have the best chance that is, provided the 109th Congress is looked upon favorably because of Frist's leadership on issues such as judges, missile defense and the Law of the Sea Treaty.

There are some Governors. George Pataki of New York may well call it quits after three terms. If Pataki does run again, he may well be defeated and if he were, so would end his presidential ambitions. Pataki is another New Yorker who comes out on the wrong side of the important values voters on key social issues, such as gay marriage.

>> Continued -- Page 1 2