Other Columns by Mike Bayham
Mike Bayham Bio

Printer-Friendly Version

The RINO King Avoids Extinction
By Mike Bayham
May 10, 2004

The primary contest between US Senator Arlen Specter (R-sometimes) and his conservative challenger, Congressman Pat Toomey, was more than a parochial political fight as it was a duel between the "country club" faction versus the "Republican wing" of the GOP. Though Specter turned back Toomey at the polls, his meager margin of 2% out of over one million ballots cast was a clear signal that RINOs are becoming an increasingly endangered species within the Republican Party.

Considering that Specter had the full backing of the White House and his home state colleague, US Senator Rick Santorum, it is amazing that the upstart Toomey bid came even that close. Had President Bush remained neutral or scaled back his support in any way, Toomey, who was opposed by the merlot sippers and the entire state and national party establishment, would have cruised on to the general election.

The once laughable challenge on Specter's right flank became so serious that word was generously leaked that a Specter defeat would mean less of a presence in Pennsylvania by the Bush campaign, which was possibly one of the most absurd threats ever uttered in modern American politics. It was also repeated ad nauseam that the President, for some bizarre reason, desperately needed the renomination of a registered Republican that has been far less reliable legislative ally than Democrats John Breaux and Zell Miller.

Specter had done much over his many years in the US Senate to unapologetically rankle conservatives, with his most memorable stunt being his opposition of Robert Bork's nomination to the Supreme Court. He followed up this bit of party heresy by trying to stake a liberal claim to the GOP via an astoundingly disastrous run for the Republican presidential nomination, his infamous "not proven" vote in the vote to convict President Clinton, and his numerous instances of supporting legislation and issues that run contrary to the general mantra of the Republican Party.

So now that the White House and the GOP has been appeased, what have they wrought?

If Specter is re-elected, a far from certain prospect considering his modest win, President Bush, whose own re-election will be tough, will still have to contend with a fellow party member who will continue his implacable defiance to conservative measures. Since this will be the senior senator's final term and though he owes the White House big time for salvaging his political career, don't expect Specter to show any real gratitude aside his gregarious thank you on primary night.

Also if the 74 year-old senator were to pass away while in office, he would immediately be replaced by a Democrat, courtesy of former DNC Chairman and current Governor Ed Rendell.

Instead of throwing Specter under the bus, the White House and GOP decided unwisely to stick with an ornery curmudgeon that is coming to the end of his time in politics, one way or the other.

Rick Santorum, who was one of the most prominent conservatives in the congressional leadership, lost a great deal of credibility aligning himself with Specter, even if the White House gave him little choice in the matter. Though he might be relieved that he bet on the winning horse, Santorum certainly bet on the wrong one.

If the ambitious Santorum harbors any aspirations of seeking the nomination himself in 2008 or sometime thereafter, he will most certainly be abandoned by the party moderates that temporarily embraced him out of convenience for his efforts on behalf of Specter and possibly shunned by conservatives with long memories.

The stupidest thing for the Republican Party to do is to treat Toomey with the same contempt they harbored against former New Hampshire US Senator Bob Smith. If the President and Specter hope to win Pennsylvania, they are going to need the assistance of the rebellious conservative. Any attempt to make an "example" out of Toomey or his supporters for failing to toe the establishment line could result in a civil war within the PA GOP, dooming any hope of Bush taking the Keystone State's electoral votes in six months.

In terms of the fight for the soul of the party, Specter's victory holds very little for those that want to mold the GOP into the graven image of Nelson Rockefeller, especially as it was a win that was achieved through establishment impressment of conservative leaders and activists. Though a tactical defeat for the right, the close shave they gave the incumbent could become a strategic victory, causing the Club for Growth to be taken as an even greater force in the party.

Perhaps stating that the White House chose to go with the wrong candidate and the eventual nominee chose to run in the wrong primary could best sum up the Republican US Senate contest in Pennsylvania.

---------

Mike Bayham is a political consultant and author of the book, "Right From The Bayou: The Opinions of a Conservative Cajun", which is available at iuniverse.com

--------------------

Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.