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The Fight for the Political Leftovers
By Mike Bayham
December 2, 2002

With this November's "political feast," where Republicans ate turkey while the Democrats dined on crow, long gone there remain two "giblet" Federal elections to be decided in Louisiana of historic importance for locals and of national significance for Beltway types.

The first election is in the Fifth Congressional District where former congressional aide Lee Fletcher (R) will face State Representative Rodney Alexander (D) for a vacated seat in the US House of Representatives. Because this is a Republican district, Fletcher should have no problem in succeeding his former boss, retiring congressman John Cooksey, in the lower house of Congress.

In the November primary, the three major Republican candidates (Fletcher, former Congressman Clyde Holloway, and State Senator Robert Barham) polled a total of 67% of the vote while Alexander garnered 29% further indicating that the election is very much Fletcher's to lose.

Because Republicans picked up seats in the US House in the historic midterm elections, that particular election does not have as great of national implications as the other major Federal election also to be decided on the same day.

For conservatives across the country, the Terrell-Landrieu race is more than the Republican Party's hope of gaining a "52nd" vote in the US Senate-it's also an insurance policy. The larger the margin, the less likely Lincoln Chafee will entertain visions of handing over a wing of the Congress dancing in his head. Having 52 votes will also diminish the potential threat by liberal Republicans to hold the party hostage on various social issues before the US Senate.

For a while, it looked like the Louisiana US Senate was going to be a political nonevent. US Senator Mary Landrieu began her campaign for reelection with a wide financial lead over her then lone Republican challenger, Congressman John Cooksey of Monroe. The polls showed Landrieu easily rolling Cooksey in a one on one race and things looked pretty bleak for the GOP's hopes of tossing out Landrieu, who had "won" the seat by less than 1% of the vote in 1996. And then 9-11 happened.

It was not so much the Al Qaeda attack on New York and the Pentagon that reshaped the election but Congressman Cooksey's reaction to the tragedy. In an interview that took place not long after the attack, Cooksey used an earthy vernacular to state the need to employ racial profiling at airports to prevent future hijackings. Unfortunately for Cooksey, whose comments made national news, President Bush refused to support the congressman because of his comments, which had a profound impact on the race.

All of a sudden, other Republicans began to show an interest in running for US Senate. The national party, looking to take advantage of Louisiana's open primary, advocated a "pile on Mary" strategy in which GOP candidates from across the state were encouraged to make the race. The idea was to drain off enough votes from Landrieu in the primary to force her into a runoff by combining party support with geographic loyalties.

Cooksey was joined in the race by fellow Republicans Tony Perkins, a Baton Rouge legislator with strong connections with evangelicals, and State Elections Commissioner Suzie Terrell, who is a former New Orleans City Councilwoman. All of a sudden, major candidates from northern Louisiana, the Florida Parishes, and her own backyard were flanking Landrieu.

Democrats had used the exact same strategy in 1986 when a number of well-known Democratic politicians challenged Republican Congressman Henson Moore, who was poised to win in the primary for Russell Long's vacated US Senate seat. Though Moore polled in the mid-forties, the combined Democratic vote was enough to deny him an outright win and was forced into a second ballot with then US Representative John Breaux which the Democrat won.

Several prominent black legislators, who were unhappy with Landrieu and backed a little known New Orleans reverend in the election, dented her electoral foundation in the black community, which further helped the Republicans. In the end, the long shot gambit by the GOP paid off by bleeding enough votes from Landrieu to force her into a December duel with Terrell.

The race has taken several unexpected turns since the primary. Cooksey endorsed Terrell immediately after the primary though he followed that up several days later with a few slashing comments about Terrell's candidacy. Perkins, who questioned Terrell's commitment to conservatism throughout the primary, appeared reluctant to say anything at all though he eventually endorsed the Republican candidate. The most bizarre commentary about Terrell's candidacy came from Republican Governor Mike Foster.

Foster, who backed Cooksey early in the campaign, razzed Terrell in the primary and did not stop criticizing her in the runoff. For a while it appeared Foster was leaning towards an endorsement of Landrieu, who in turn heaped generous amounts of praise on her 1995 gubernatorial rival. However, Foster made a quick "about face" and endorsed Terrell stating his desire to support the president's agenda in Washington.

Landrieu, as stated previously, also had her own problems with her base. After Foster came out for Terrell, State Senator Cleo Fields, who has feuded with Landrieu since she refused to endorse him in the runoff for governor in 1995, publicly gave his estranged fellow Democrat his blessing. However, State Senators Greg Tarver and Donald Cravins, who are influential black leaders in Shreveport and Lafayette, have indicated that Landrieu should expect little from them.

Right now it would be safe to assume that the election is going to be extremely close with the victorious candidate winning by a modest margin. Landrieu, who was counting on a primary win, jettisoned her campaign consultants before the results were even certified and has begun to air negative attack ads on her Republican opponent. Terrell, on the other hand, has the support of a unified Republican Party and the White House along with one other advantage: the calendar.

This is the first time a Louisiana US Senate race will be decided in December and it will be the only thing on the ballot in most areas of the state. In 1996 Republican candidate Woody Jenkins had to contend with having a lackluster Dole presidential candidacy and the street money put out in New Orleans in support of the casino propositions in his race against Landrieu. Turnout is projected to be relatively low in the election, which favors Terrell since Republicans tend to be chronic voters.

History and political trends are working against Landrieu. When a similar situation took place in Georgia in 1992, the Republican defeated the Democratic incumbent in the runoff. In 2000, Louisiana went to George W. Bush by a big margin. Republicans did well in the Deep South in 2002 with Georgia, a state that is demographically similar to Louisiana, electing its first Republican governor since Reconstruction.

Another bad sign for Mary are the results from the 1999 Insurance Commissioner race pitting Democratic incumbent Jim Brown against Republican challenger Allen Boudreaux. Though Boudreaux lost the election, he carried 31% of the vote in New Orleans, an unprecedented amount in recent years for any Republican running against a Democrat in New Orleans. Turnout in the city that day was just over 60,000. Usually Democrats hope to CARRY New Orleans by 100,000 votes.

Another vote for President Bush's agenda is not the only thing at stake in this election. There's also pride.

The Landrieu name is one of the most polarizing terms in state politics. As the leading figure of the New Orleans political family, she has as much baggage as she does assets. That Republicans view Mary Landrieu as a bayou version of Hillary Clinton has not endeared her to many right of center voters.

Furthermore, there are many political activists that still feel that she did not win a legitimate victory in 1996 and that mass vote fraud in New Orleans was critical in giving her more votes than her Republican opponent. The GOP's base has been energized by this chance to take out the reigning monarch of the "Landrieu dynasty" and to avenge the disputed 1996 election.

And then there is the Louisiana GOP's "zero and infinity" record in US Senate elections. Every time it seemed that a Republican was on the verge of winning, the bottom dropped out thus wounding the morale of hundreds of conservative activists. One prominent Republican referred to this inability to elect a Republican US Senator as a curse.

Louisiana is the only state in the Union to have never elected a Republican US Senator. The Reconstruction Republicans that held Louisiana's seats don't really count because they were selected by a fraudulently elected legislature and most of them were not born in Louisiana. The practice of popularly electing US Senators is less than a century old and the GOP failed to gain any real traction in a US Senate election until 1986. It did not happen then or in the other four attempts made since the Moore-Breaux election.

Various polls conducted since the race was whittled down to two candidates have shown contradictory signs with some giving Landrieu the lead while others showing Terrell ahead. The national Republicans have shown their strongest interest to help out in a Louisiana US Senate race in 16 years with Terrell benefiting from presidential and vice-presidential visits and financial support.

The fifth time may very well be the charm for Suzie Terrell and the Louisiana Republican Party. If the New Orleans Saints, the only private entity in the state more hapless than the Louisiana GOP, were able to break their own curse by winning their first playoff game in 2000, then I don't see any reason why a Republican cannot be elected to the US Senate this December.