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Election 2002: Elephant Stomp
By Mike Bayham
November 7, 2002

Tuesday night marked one of the most successful evenings in the history of the Republican Party when the GOP scored surprising gains in the US Congress. Despite the recent economic woes, foreign entanglements, and corporate scandals, voters stood by the president and his party. Republicans were also running against history in which the party in control of the White House traditionally loses seats during the mid-term elections.

However history and the Democratic Majority in the US Senate was blindsided by an unpredictable electorate that had the pollsters and the media fooled until the first returns were made public. While the last time the party in control of the White House picked up seats in Congress was only four years ago, the retaking of a chamber of Congress in a midterm election by the party in the executive office was unprecedented in the modern partisan era.

US House of Representatives

Most pundits conceded control of the US House of Representatives to Republicans long before Election Day despite the narrow margin between the two parties in Congress' lower chamber. However many political observers did not expect the addition of new seats by the GOP, even in modest numbers. The 2002 election reverses a six-year trend in which Republicans had seen their majority in the US House dwindle in every election.

The formidable force of incumbency benefited most of the members on both sides of the aisle, which consequently helped keep the majority party in control of the US House. Also population growth in Republican leaning states and the GOP's gubernatorial majority helped create new conservative seats in states with new congressmen and assisted in protecting Republican incumbents through drawing favorable districts in states that saw a decline in their US House membership.

One factor that has not been discussed as much, despite having played a large role in this election, is the permanence of the political realignment in America that began in earnest in 1994. This is the fourth congressional election since the Gingrich group took over the Capitol, something many Democrats thought would be reversed in the next election cycle, as was the case the two previous times the GOP had the US House. When he is sworn in for a third term in 2003, Denny Hastert will become the first Republican Speaker to win a third consecutive term since Teddy Roosevelt's son-in-law (Nicholas Longworth) ran the US House.

US Senate

A narrow Republican majority in the US Senate was viewed as a strong possibility one month ago. However between then and election day a number of strange events took place including the death of one of the most vulnerable Democrats in a plane crash, the NJ Democrats swapping out a sinking incumbent with a wealthy former US Senator, and a resurgent push by several Democratic US Senate candidates in states with Republican incumbents.

The Democrats' raid of the "old folks home" paid off in New Jersey with the shameful switch initiated by the party bosses and blessed by a partisan NJ Supreme Court when Frank Lautenberg defeated one time likely winner Doug Forrester. The other senior citizen drafted late in the game in Minnesota did not fare as well when former Vice-president Walter Mondale saw his brief candidacy sink as fast as it took off. Of the two substitute candidates, Mondale was the only one that was truly legitimate with the other one happening under the guise of promoting "democracy" but in fact done in the name of saving the party's bid to hold on to their US Senate majority.

Mondale's candidacy was helped by his wide name recognition, his previous service in the US Senate and later as Vice-president, and a large sympathy vote for the fallen incumbent. Unfortunately for Mondale, Wellstone's memorial service turned out to be more of a pep rally than a funeral, which cut his lead over Norm Coleman to shreds.

Coleman deserves recognition for doing the risky thing in jumping immediately back into the campaign, though a great deal of the credit for the victory should go to a very unlikely person, for it was outgoing Governor Jesse Ventura who loudly called out the Democrats for the political tone of the service and caused whatever momentum Mondale had to stop in its tracks.

Though Mondale was beaten, two other presidential losers saw their careers jump-started on Tuesday. Elizabeth Dole and Lamar Alexander (sans plaid shirt and exclamation point) won US Senate races in their home states. Republicans also held on in tough defenses in Oregon, Texas, New Hampshire and Colorado.

Three incumbents were turned out of the US Senate on Tuesday night. The Republicans took a hit in Arkansas when minister and divorcee Tim Hutchinson was defeated for reelection by Mark Pryor, son of one of Arkansas' most prominent politicians and himself a former US Senator. In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss won a huge upset when he ousted Democrat Max Cleland. Chambliss had spent most of the campaign on the bottom end of the polls though he made up a lot of ground in the last two weeks of the election, a sign of Georgia's increasing shift to the GOP.

The sweetest victory for me personally on election night was when Jean Carnahan was defeated for reelection in Missouri. You might recall that it was two years ago when Mrs. Carnahan's husband died in a plane crash while challenging incumbent US Senator John Ashcroft for reelection.

Carnahan refused to announce her intention to serve in the US Senate if the voters of Missouri voted for her dead husband thus avoiding the rigors of being a candidate while milking the sympathy vote in controlled media appearances. Carnahan shamelessly used the funeral of her husband in a subtle though politically charged forum to promote her shadow candidacy.

She showed little class when Ashcroft conceded a seat that he had every right to contest in the courts and promptly voted against his confirmation as Attorney General. Now that Carnahan is out of a job this columnist would like to recommend that she move to New Jersey so that she would be available to continue her record of "service" on their equally ethically challenged Supreme Court.

What happened in Louisiana merits its own column if only to explain how the system works, though the results were equally good for the GOP in the Pelican State.

Governors

Republicans sustained very limited losses on a front that looked to be their bleakest spot in the 2002 elections. The projected near GOP wipeout in the Great Lakes happened, as did the strong Republican defense and pick ups in New England, where Republicans will occupy every governor's mansion except Maine in this typically Democratic stronghold. The propaganda war in Florida backfired on soon to be former DNC head Terry McAuliffe when Jeb Bush was reelected by a wide margin.

The three big surprises for the GOP on the gubernatorial front were in Hawaii, Maryland, and Georgia, where a Republican has not served as governor since Reconstruction. Democrats, to their credit, did make some progress with additional wins in Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Arizona, and New Mexico. With Alabama projected to go Republican, the GOP will retain a bare majority of the state governor's mansions. However this area was the only one where Democrats made any net gains making outgoing Vermont Governor Howard Dean the only prominent Democratic leader and 2004 presidential candidate with any success to show for in 2002.

The MVP of the Election

The accolades for the 2002 Republican triumph go to the very man that two years ago had the shortest political coattails of any winning presidential candidate. George W. Bush, who entered office with depleted Republican majorities, strengthened his hand considerably in enacting his political agenda over the next two years. Bush, as you might recall, did very little to help out Republican candidates in 2001 but more than made up for it in 2002.

The press harped on his nonstop campaigning for fellow Republicans this year, often pointing out that he was more active than his predecessor was in midterm elections. Granted nobody mentioned that members of Bill Clinton's own party were running away from his presidency during the midterms instead of embracing him. Dick Morris and the Democrats, obviously looking out for Bush's best interests, solemnly warned that his high level of political activities might hurt his political standing party's chances this year and generously recommended that he leave the countryside and return to the rose garden. Needless to say Bush and his advisers kindly ignored their generous counsel.

The day after such statements were made about his potential eroding popularity, his approval rating leaped up giving an indication that his party activities were not hurting him but helping Republican candidates across the country. In many ways, this election was a referendum on Bush's presidency.

In this election the voters stated through proxy candidates their trust in Bush and have basically thrown the keys to the country to him. Americans, weary of gridlock, have entrusted Bush with majorities in both houses of Congress so he can get behind the wheel in order to get the country moving again over the next two years. A win of Tuesday's magnitude has both its advantages and its risks for if things do not turn around in terms of the economy and other areas of public concern, the voters will yank the keys and the White House from him in 2004.