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Handicapping the 2002 Gubernatorial Elections
By Mike Bayham
November 4, 2002

The fight for the 36 governor's mansions will not have the strong political implications that the previous election had on national politics in 1998. Because reapportionment for the US House of Representatives is a done deal for the next decade, the GOP can afford to take some lumps, which is a good thing because they're going to get some on Tuesday. Republicans currently hold 27 governorships while Democrats have 21 and Independents are in the remaining two.

The number of Republican governors has been on the decline since the high-water point in 1995 with the trend likely continuing this year. The GOP has lost or is losing many of its strongest state executives with this year's party nominees in some cases playing the role of pretender instead of contender. Governors like John Engler in Michigan and Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin have enjoyed a great deal of political success in states that are not too strongly aligned with the GOP.

I once had the opportunity to speak to then Governor Thompson about his lengthy tenure in Madison and asked him why he stuck around so long. Thompson candidly replied that had he not kept running, a Democrat would have surely been elected. These "personality cult" Republican governors whose political endurance was made in spite of their party affiliation will likely see Democrats win in their stead this November.

Things aren't much better in the other Great Lake states with gubernatorial elections with Illinois and Pennsylvania also going Democrat. The GOP's best hopes in this once solidly Republican area are in Ohio, where Governor Bob Taft is looking increasingly secure in his reelection bid, and in Minnesota where the Republican nominee is the leading candidate to succeed Jesse Ventura as governor.

Ironically, the GOP should do decently in the liberal northeast where Governors Pataki (NY) and Rowland (CT) are favored to be reelected. In Massachusetts, a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since Michael Dukakis, Republican George Romney is in a competitive race to succeed acting GOP Governor Jane Swift, who was driven out of the party primary by Romney. The same applies to Rhode Island where the Republican candidate, Don Carcieri, has a slight edge over the Democrat, Myrth York, in a recent poll.

As of right now, I feel comfortable calling Romney and Carcieri the likely winners in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Republicans also have a shot at winning open seats in Vermont and New Hampshire though Democrats are in a strong position to pick up Maine.

Things look a bit brighter for the GOP further south with one possible surprise coming out of an unlikely place. Of the 13 former Confederate states, plus Oklahoma and Maryland, Democrats rule the roost with the governors, a rather bizarre political situation considering the South is one of the most conservative regions in the Union. Republicans have only 6 of 15 southern governor mansions. Much like how the GOP maxed out on total governorships in 1994, the same glass ceiling goes for the Democrats with southern governors.

Republicans are poised to unseat Democratic governors in South Carolina and Alabama while Republican incumbents are picked to win reelection in Texas and Arkansas. Democrats are likely to hold on to Georgia and possibly pick up Tennessee, though Republican Congressman Van Hilleary is still in contention.

A most pleasant surprise for the Republicans could be in Maryland where Congressman Bob Ehrlich is running to become the first Republican governor in the state since Spiro Agnew won in 1966. His Democratic opponent is Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (yes of THAT political family) who was one time mentioned as a potential running mate for Al Gore in 2000. Maryland is hardly a Republican leaning state but the over three decade Democratic monopoly on the office combined Townsend's "all name and low substance" candidacy could lead to the upset of the evening for the GOP.

In what was being billed by the Democrats as their primary propaganda battle against President Bush, it appears that Jeb Bush is en route to becoming the first Republican governor of Florida to ever be reelected. Despite the primary defeat of dream opponent Janet Reno, Bush has been holding his own against first time candidate Bill McBride. Recent polls in the Sunshine State point to a Bush victory making the DNC wish they would not have talked so much trash about this particular race.

The rest of the country holds a mixed bag for the GOP in terms of the governor elections. In the land of Alf Landon and sunflowers (Kansas for nonpolitical junkies and horticulturists), the GOP finds itself in surprisingly bad shape in the governor's election. At one point in the campaign, the Democratic nominee led Republican candidate Tim Shallenburger by 22 points. Though Shallenburger has made some progress, he still trails in the most recent polls. The likely scenario for Kansas is the same that took place in Virginia where party voters will give Shallenburger a sizable vote while party infighting will clip the GOP nominee enough to deny him a victory.

Arizona is another Republican leaning state that seems to be teetering on the brink of falling to a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, though Matt Salmon is in a much stronger position than his Kansas GOP counterpart. Polls indicate a close race which is not really a good sign when taking into account Arizona's Republican tendencies.

On a good note, Alaska should be returning to the Republican column while Democratic scandals in Hawaii could precipitate the election of its first Republican governor since the Eisenhower Administration.

Finally there is the race for governor in California. With its large number of electoral votes, this is the most coveted political prize up for grabs in Tuesday's gubernatorial elections. Why this is so is totally beyond me. Peter Willson's presence in Sacramento did nothing to move the Golden State into either the elder Bush's corner in 1992 nor Bob Dole's in 1996. If there is indeed a correlation between electing a Republican governor in a state and later winning its electoral votes, then someone needs to tell me. Personal feelings about the ridiculousness about its gubernatorial importance aside (which is even less for me since I do not reside there), this election is boiling down to which candidate is the lesser of two evils.

Gray Davis, who is about as exciting as his first name suggests, may not be the flashiest or likable or honest politician in North America, he is somewhat learned in politics. The people do not like him. Polls have shown this throughout the latter part of his term in office. Davis knows this. Rather than trying to raise the Titanic, Davis decided to do the next (and most practical) best thing: send Bill Simon down to bottom of the ocean with him.

Simon's campaign, which has been having a tough time ever since Davis quit helping him after the Republican primary, has been criticized for being mismanaged and poorly run. Despite these self-inflicted political flesh wounds, Simon is still within striking distance for one reason alone: nobody likes Gray Davis.

The problem is there are some people in California that have neither voter cards nor green cards that will be "motivated" (Democrat for paid) to "get out the vote" (Democrat for illegally casting multiple or fraudulent ballots). For the record I am NOT accusing the governor of California of being personally involved in such activities, only predicting that they will happen with Bill Simon receiving the short end of such illicit happenings.

Another way to put it is that Davis' guaranteed vote will be there to vote against the Republican while Simon's potential vote will either put him over the top with their ballots or allowed Davis to win with their rumps. A Simon win would be a major political victory, if only because the media will tell us so, and it could very well happen though it's not going to be easy.

Overall the Republicans should expect under the most favorable circumstances to be down a net total of 2, bringing their total down to 25 or a worst case scenario of being down by 5, which would give the Democrats a majority of the governors.