Other Columns by Mike Bayham
Mike Bayham Bio

Printer-Friendly Version

The GOP Establishment Wins One
By Mike Bayham
August 8, 2002

The immediate post-2000 elections had not been terribly kind to the Republican Party's political establishment. In New Jersey, acting Governor Don DiFrancesco was the establishment candidate for governor in the 2001 election when the "duchess" (former governor Christie Whitman) abdicated her throne to become President Bush's EPA chief.

Even though he polled poorly in the beginning and was considered as being divisive for the NJ GOP by having the temerity to take on an incumbent, albeit acting, Republican Governor, Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler pressed on and made his case for the need for competition.

Instead of rallying behind the man that did the NJ GOP, and the state of New Jersey, a great service by ending DiFrancesco's immediate political career, Schundler was blindsided by his own party and left to rot come Election Day. If the "establishment" could not name "their" nominee, to hell with the governor's mansion.

Though Schundler was discarded by the GOP's hoi polloi soon after he was "embraced" on winning the primary, his campaign exposed the many ethical problems DiFrancesco had that the New Jersey Democrats were sitting on to use in the general election. His loss in the general election was by a large margin but would have been relatively small compared to a DiFrancesco defeat. Schundler's campaign exposed the weakness in the mentality to "centrally plan" the GOP primaries where people with polling data with no connection to the electorate were mapping out that state's political destiny. These planners achieved about as much success as the Soviet planners of old did in running the Russian economy.

The next race was in California where Golden State Republicans were told from Washington, DC that former LA Mayor Richard Riordan was the candidate to nominate and that Bill Simon was doing the party a disservice by challenging Riordan. Even though Gray Davis had helped the Simon cause by blasting Riordan in negative campaign ads during the GOP primary, Riordan's supposed "lock" on the general election became doubtful and the locals rejected the Beltway's wisdom in that race.

With two major setbacks, the battle for the "central planners" shifted to Al Gore's homestate of Tennessee, where popular Republican U.S. Senator Fred Thompson announced that he was leaving the Capitol. Once again, the GOP Establishment engaged itself in the race but this time the results were different: they actually won one.

The Republican nominee in Tennessee for the U.S. Senate this November will be none other than "Lamar!"...Alexander. This is the same Alexander that made generous use of gimmicks and anagrams in running for the Republican nomination in 1996 where he, sporting a red and black checkered flannel shirt and the campaign slogan "Alexander Beats Clinton," became an overnight "success" by coming in third place on not just one occasion, but two, that's right, count them, two! occasions.

Alexander never got a chance to see if his "ABC's" were true to form since he had trouble with his "ACBBDF's" (Alexander Couldn't Beat Buchanan, Dole, or Forbes) to make it to the general election. Alexander's campaign had been backed by the White House and was challenged by a conservative Congressman named Ed Bryant. Alexander won by a margin of 54% to 43%, an impressive margin though much less so when you take into account that Lamar! had been governor twice while Bryant had been in Congress for only four terms.

In all fairness, I think Alexander is a fairly strong candidate and should be the favorite to win the election in November in what is now considered to be a critical state for the Republicans to win. Whether Bryant would have been a stronger candidate is not clear, but the results do show that he has a significant base that cannot be neglected. Alexander is not the only place where the GOP Establishment is enjoying success.

In North Carolina, the White House managed to clear out a large part of the field for U.S. Senator Jesse Helms' open seat before the election, more or less sending Liddy Dole to November. Dole has received a lot less fuss than she would have had former U.S. Senator Lauch Faircloth entered the race. Dole's conservative credentials are suspect, to be polite, and she would have had a lot of explaining to do for her left of center campaign for the Republican nomination in 1999. In that race, Karl Rove and his lieutenants managed to succeed in a fashion that would have made Sun Tzu proud by winning the battle before the fight.

The next headache for the White House and major intraparty clash will be in New Hampshire when U.S. Senator Bob Smith runs against Congressman John Sununu for renomination. Smith made a blip on the national political radar when he ran for President and followed up that blip by leaving the Republican Party. Unlike "Benedict Jeffords" in neighboring Vermont, the one time Independent Smith committed to vote with the Republicans in organizing the U.S. Senate, keeping the GOP in the majority.

Smith is the most anti-Establishment member of Congress' upper chamber and he faces the son of one of Washington's most notorious insiders. But interestingly enough, the roles have been reversed. In what has to be one of the most bizarre political unions, the White House and Rudolph Giuliani have rallied to Smith's banner in his quest for reelection.

The Smith-Sununu contest will be the last of the big intra-party fights prior to the battle for control of the Congress in November. Because of Louisiana's open primary, the contest there will initially be to see if Democrat Mary Landrieu will be denied a primary win and if so, which Republican will face her in the December general election.

So far the GOP Establishment has fared decently in charting the course of party developments since California, but the danger of playing too aggressive of a role could result in hard feelings that cause the "other guy's" supporters to vote with their couches. However there are other cases where the White House might have to act in order to save the Republican Party from itself.