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Contrary Mary and the Quest for a GOP Majority
By Mike Bayham
July 11, 2002

Over the past few years, I have discussed various contributing factors that gave control of the US Senate by the Democratic Party. Often I have set the date of the beginning of the end of the Republican majority at the 1998 midterm elections when the GOP failed to pick up insurance seats during a ripe time for expansion.

Of course, this did not happen which set the stage for three events that ended the majority: the death of GOP US Senator Paul Coverdall from Georgia, a disastrous showing by US Senate candidates in 2000, and finally the defection of a certain Vermont US Senator who was a so called Republican and became a so called Independent. In truth, Jim Jeffords was always a Democrat whose only Republican inclination came when it was time to vote for the arrangement of the Senate leadership, thus going from damned near useless to just damned useless.

Had just one of these events not happened, Trent Lott would still be Majority Leader, which at a minimum would mean that Ted Kennedy and his other liberal ilk would not be chairing the all important committees. However even if all of the previous events happened, the GOP would still control the US Senate (through a tie) if one election had gone another way in 1996. That race took place in Louisiana during the Clinton-Dole election.

To make a long story short, the general election pitted Republican State Representative Woody Jenkins against former State Treasurer Mary Landrieu. The two candidates had survived the open primary (which could have in theory produced two candidates of the same party affiliation) with Jenkins as the front-runner.

Jenkins seemed to be assured of victory but was denied for reasons that included street money handed out by gambling interests in inner city New Orleans, the failure of some Republicans to support their own candidate, questionable voting practices in New Orleans (aka fraud), Bob Dole as a ticket mate, and instances where the GOP standard bearer failed to meet expectations.

Naturally the Democrats have claimed that Jenkins lost due to the last part while Republicans stated their grievances regarding the legality of an election that was undoubtedly tainted by vote fraud. After a great deal of noise, Landrieu was seated as the junior senator from Louisiana. Landrieu's majority was so thin that statistically, the election was called 50% to 50% or to put it another way, had one voter in each precinct changed their mind and backed Jenkins, the Republican candidate would have won the race and conservative candidates for Federal judgeships would be having a less grueling time receiving their confirmations.

But there was no joy in Mudville (also known as the state GOP headquarters) in 1996 and this did not happen. So in lieu of victory, Republican activists began to stew waiting for a chance to avenge themselves in the next election.

However, to the chagrin of rabid conservatives in Louisiana, Landrieu has behaved more like John Breaux than she has acted like Mary Landrieu. Some of her votes, like her opposition against John Ashcroft's nomination, raised the ire of conservatives but since she has positioned herself as a moderate on many issues, the fire that was there in the midst of the polarized 1996 election has gone from a blaze to a flicker.

Landrieu's poll numbers are high and even Louisiana's Republican governor raised money for her in 1998. The political demise of her 1996 bete noire has helped her cause and for a while there was no clear challenger to Landrieu. Then Congressman John Cooksey jumped in, and though she drew an opponent, she did not exactly draw significant opposition.

Cooksey's brief tenure in Congress combined with his rural district, which is not an area where there are many opportunities for statewide media exposure, kept him from achieving the name recognition needed to mount a credible campaign. Then the wily Cooksey decided to go from non-famous to infamous with his derogatory comments about Arab-Americans in the wake of 9-11, words that gained him national publicity and a campaign embargo by the White House. However, his poll numbers have remained stagnant.

Then Jay Blossman, Public Service Commissioner for the New Orleans northshore, dropped into the race for the US Senate and then dropped out shortly thereafter. National Republican leaders, who saw Louisiana as a potential battleground six years ago, began to panic and adopted a policy of encouraging as many Republican candidates as possible to enter the race.

Such a plan was adopted by the Democrats in Louisiana in 1986 when then sure thing Congressman Henson Moore (R-Baton Rouge) was the front-runner for Russell Long's open US Senate seat. In a desperate move, the Democrats engaged in a game of "regional pile on the leader" by entering a number of candidates from all over the state in the open primary to deny Moore a primary win and to allow enough time to regroup on the second ballot.

The game plan worked with Senate President Sammy Nunez, State Senator J. E. Jumonville, and State Insurance Commissioner Sherman Bernard draining enough regional votes that may have gone to Moore but that went to the "favorite son" candidate instead, creating a runoff between the Republican candidate and Crowley Congressman John Breaux.

A second Republican, enticed by the national invitation to join the fray, entered the race when Baton Rouge State Representative Anthony Perkins declared his candidacy. Perkins, who was reportedly entertaining thoughts of running for Lieutenant Governor...and still might be doing so, was Jenkins' campaign manager in the 1996 election and is one of the most outspoken conservatives in the legislature.

However, the two Republicans (whose actual combined strength is debatable) were not enough to force Landrieu into a December general election (the open primary which used to be a month prior to the November general election is now in November thanks to the Federal courts). Then the party pulled out the big gun with Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell's candidacy announcement.

Terrell is the candidate Landrieu fears the most for many reasons. First she is a threat to her gender base and her political base, since both Landrieu and Terrell hail from New Orleans. Second, she is the only other candidate in the race besides Landrieu who has won a statewide election, doing so by ironically defeating Perkins' mentor and Landrieu's US Senate opponent, Woody Jenkins.

Even worse news for Landrieu came in the form of Cleo Fields' announcement that he intends to challenge the US Senator in the election, though his opposition may not come through his candidacy but possibly by supporting one of the other candidates.

As Louisiana's most influential black political leader, Fields may not be able to deliver a majority of the black vote for a Republican but he might be able to deny Landrieu a super majority with black voters that would give her a primary win. The root of the ill will has to do with their opposing candidacies for governor when Landrieu tried to shake off some of Fields' black voters by advertising the unlikely prospect of a Fields victory in a runoff.

Another troubling story that has been circulated is that Democratic State Treasurer John Kennedy, who is close to Fields, is exploring a bid, but according to a top source from the third floor of the Capitol, nothing could be further from the truth since Kennedy's sights are on the fourth floor (the governor's mansion) in 2003.

The Landrieu camp has had the most unsettling month over the past five and a half years. Only 6 months ago, the only opposition Landrieu had was in the form of John Cooksey who had little chance in a straight up race. Now Landrieu is being flanked in the north (by Cooksey), the capital (by Perkins), her home (Terrell), and possibly in her critical black voter base (by Fields).

With the exception of the latter, which has more to do with personal animosity than the machinations of Karl Rove and the RNC, the brewing political contest in Louisiana could be a sign that the GOP is determined to take the fight to the Democrats for control of the US Senate in as many states as possible, even going so far as to create battle ground states where they did not exist previously.