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An Unexpected Event in Louisiana
By Mike Bayham
May 30, 2002

One of my favorite Monty Python skits is the "Spanish Inquisition." The skit starts off with a man walking into a room and informing the woman inside that there was an accident at the mill. The woman then proceeds to shoot off a litany of questions about the accident. Obviously irritated by the barrage of questions, the bringer of bad news exclaims that he came by to simply tell the woman that there was an accident and that he did not expect a Spanish inquisition.

Almost immediately after the man makes the statement, three men dressed in red Cardinal outfits rush through the door screaming "no one expects the Spanish inquisition" and followed by even more British humor. The skit (and its inclusion in this column) is bizarre but I really could not think of a better analogy for the recent turn of events on what was supposed to be a quiet week before Memorial Day in Louisiana politics.

First there was the anticipated release of the first poll of the 2003 Louisiana governor's race. In fact that was what I had planned on writing about this week. Though I was curious to see who polled what, I was also going to pan the results as being worthless in terms of prognosticating the future of politics in the Pelican State. After all, the current governor of the state started off his race in 1995 with a 2% showing in a poll commissioned during the middle of the contest.

If memory serves me right, Melinda Schwegmann, whose star would rapidly fall shortly thereafter, was the leading candidate at this juncture in the same race.

But there were other news worthy events that took place last week in the realm of Cajun politics. The Feds talked to two associates of David Duke, currently in self-imposed exile in Europe, regarding their dealings with him during the mid-nineties.

Investigations of the former state representative are nothing new but the time in particular that authorities are supposedly interested in did raise the eyebrows of a few. It was during that time that then State Senator Mike Foster paid thousands of dollars to Duke for a campaign mailing list that he admitted he never used in his gubernatorial campaign. This could be an indication that the Federal government could still be looking into something Foster had hoped to have behind him.

But the big, and most unexpected news, came from Metairie Congressman David Vitter. Vitter has been engaged in a protracted war of words and legislation with his fellow Republican registrant over an Indian casino and the punitive campaign finance bill that was submitted for legislative approval shortly after that would prevent congressmen from spending their Federal warchests in a state campaign, namely for governor.

Up until last Friday, Vitter had made it no secret that he intended to run for governor in 2003. He had already begun to raise money for the race and after the enactment of the "Intolerable Act of 2002," Vitter transferred a large part of his sizable congressional account into his state fund. Ironically it was his verbal brawling with the highest elected Republican in the state that made him the Republican to beat for governor. However Vitter's pre-Memorial Day utterance was not a new condemnation of Foster or his Jefferson Parish bete noire Sheriff Harry Lee, but something totally unexpected: Vitter was sheepishly running away from the 2003 governor's race.

Vitter cited the pressures of having to live in two places at the same time and the fact that he had an obligation to take care of his young family. The most intriguing part was that he admitted that he and his wife were currently in marriage counseling which could be his way of blunting a potentially damaging future revelation.

Vitter's sudden departure from the race has done to the Republicans what John Breaux's withdrawal did to the Democrats and then some. Many political insiders figured out that Breaux was not going to run for governor even while he claimed time and time again that he was struggling with a decision. And even though Democratic leaders were fawning over his gubernatorial candidacy on the outside, many were quietly assembling their own campaigns.

When Vitter showed signs that he would run for governor the day Breaux removed himself, the Metairie congressman became the de facto GOP candidate. Aside from Vitter, only two other Republicans have stated or hinted their 2003 intentions and neither of them have caused much of a blip on the political radar. Their hopes of winning in 2003 are so long that they would only benefit if all of the candidates outside of Belinda Alexandrenko and the Messiah Daryl Paul Ward (that his name on the ballot...no joke) were to withdraw.

The candidates who could potentially gain from Vitter's withdrawal are prominent Republicans who conceded the race to the congressman and a handful of Democrats who might be teetering on a party switch. As of now their is a huge void on the GOP front for governor.

Discounting Vitter and John Cooksey, who is abandoning his seat in the US House to run for the US Senate, there are three Republican congressmen left in which all three serve in prominent capacities that dissuade them from even thinking about leaving the Hill for any reason. Of Louisiana's record number of 8 statewide officials, three are Republican. Governor Mike Foster is termed out under the Constitution leaving two who could run for governor.

Secretary of State Fox McKeithen made a brief and forgettable run for governor in the mid-nineties and dropped out long before qualifying. Though he is the son of a former governor, his office is not an ideal springboard for governor. Other obstacles for McKeithen include his war chest, which is amongst the lowest of any of the state officials, and the fact that he had to deal with some nonpolitical issues in his life. Needless to say, McKeithen has not expressed any interest in making a second campaign for governor.

Elections Commissioner Suzie Terrell is the other Republican statewide official who could run for governor. Unlike McKeithen, complacency is not an issue for Terrell since her office has been abolished. Though the Elections Commissioner has been a rumored candidate for a variety of offices, Vitter's egress from the race might lead to increased discussion about a run for governor. On the Republican side of probable candidates, she is the most viable.

Former Governor Dave Treen has also been making noise about a political comeback with a likely run for governor. Unlike Terrell, Treen would start from scratch in campaign money though his high approval and name recognition numbers could offset his finance problems at the beginning. Treen polled well in 1995 and probably regretted exiting the race in deference to Foster, who was a prime beneficiary of his withdrawal and endorsement. Treen's other handicap aside from the lack of a war chest is going to be his age. Treen was a congressman during the seventies and last held office during the early eighties.

Finally there is a looming possibility that the "R" vacuum in the governors race could be filled by a Democrat. Three fairly conservative Democrats of high stature could be tempted to bolt the crowded Democratic field for greener and emptier pastures. Treasurer John Kennedy, former Senate President Randy Ewing, and (to a lesser degree) Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Blanco are to the right of many northern Republicans in philosophy and could make the switch with relative ease. The precedent Foster set in 1995 with his last minute party jump showed that voters would not hold a late defection against them at the ballot box.

The Vitter surprise announcement will have a greater impact on the governor's race than Breaux's scripted and choreographed departure. The likelihood of a major party switch by a leading Democrat sometime in 2002 is enough to keep politicos speculating about which one is going to jump ship. It will also keep the staff at the state Democratic Party busy working on potential press releases condemning former Democrat (fill in the blank) for deserting. Also, there is the possibility of more surprises to come in the 2003 election. One never really knows when the three Catholic Spaniards in bright red suits are going to make another unexpected visit.