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The Duke of France
By Mike Bayham
April 25, 2002

I was attending an event relating to the Bicentennial of the Louisiana Purchase when a representative of the French government came by to introduce himself to me and my delegation. After exchanging pleasantries, I could not resist the urge to ask him how he thought the French presidential runoff election was going to turn out.

Almost immediately after I finished my sentence, the handlebar mustached French official uttered the word "NON!" and stomped off. I was thinking any aspirations I had of ever becoming Secretary of State had faded when the French representative came back and shared with me his thoughts of what is going on in his home country.

He blamed most of the success of Jean-Marie Le Pen in the French presidential primary on the fact that his fellow countrymen "went fishing" on election day, allowing for Le Pen's hardened supporters to project their percentage enough to nose past Socialist Lionel Jospin for a runoff spot with incumbent Conservative President Jacques Chirac.

After giving his rather simple analysis of the situation, the representative, as if trying to point out that as a Louisianian I had room to talk, made a bizarre but acrimonious comment about how David Duke and Le Pen ought to start a vacation resort somewhere and then walked off.

Obviously, the French official was feeling a great deal of consternation because of the current political climate across the Atlantic and the amount of negative publicity France has received because of the surprising showing of Le Pen at the polls. However, due the lack of concern many Americans have for international politics, most people in the room probably thought Le Pen was a French writing utensil and not the leader of the ultra-right National Front Party.

In any case, my new French "friend" was half right in his assessment of the French elections. To compare Le Pen to Duke would be a fair analogy on several fronts. Duke's Klan activities and Le Pen's comment that the holocaust was merely a detail of history raised the anxiety level of the Jewish community on both continents.

Duke and Le Pen are no strangers to political failure, both having endured landslide defeats in their early days. Both have also stated in their political campaigns their pledge to turn off the spigots of immigration and have played on the loss of national identity due to immigration and multiculturalism.

And lastly, Duke and Le Pen have reached their political zenith at the expense of individuals who were considered strong enough to easily make the second round of balloting. In 1991 David Duke made a runoff spot for governor of Louisiana by edging out incumbent Governor Buddy Roemer while Le Pen beat out the incumbent French Prime Minister.

And though France has not had a monarchy for over one hundred years, the French people now have a "Duke" on their hands while the political establishment has egg on their face.

To simply attribute Le Pen's success due to the laziness of some of the French voters would be a serious overstatement, though I can certainly understand why that might be the desirable spin of the government.

Voter turnout was a low 72%, which would be a record in this country but in France with voter turnout averages at around 85%, is considered paltry. The top three candidates were Chirac at 19.88% (talk about lack of mandate...thank God for our two party system), Le Pen at 16.86% and Jospin at 16.18%. Would a higher turnout have prevented Le Pen from making the runoff? Possibly. But the fact that he polled that high alone is what needs to be addressed by the powers that be and not dismissed merely as a statistical anomaly.

What the results clearly show is that the French people are angry about the status quo. Polls did not project the numbers that showed up in the ballot boxes for good reason: extreme right candidates fly under political radar. Because the media tells us what to think, most people would be embarrassed to admit their support for a controversial figure harangued by the press on a daily basis. In Louisiana, there seemed to be no threat of David Duke making the runoff until they opened the machines...then it was too late.

Some of Le Pen's supporters were not voting so much for the candidate as they were sending a message. One voter, who-surprise, surprise-refused to be identified, said she voted for the National Front's standard bearer in the primary to express her displeasure with the crime rate but would likely go with Chirac in a runoff. Granted this voter could be doing a replay of saying one thing and voting another, it would not be far fetched to see Le Pen lose some of his primary support in the general election, much like Duke did, when voters tend to worry more about electing governments instead of making political statements.

Since making the runoff, there have been rallies, protests and riots (ironically by the same people that claim to oppose the hate and violence Le Pen represents) against his candidacy. Just like how Louisiana's neighbors and uninvited Hollywood elites decided to tell the people of a state they never much cared for prior to their new cause celebre came about how they need to vote against a certain candidate, the French people have been instructed and cajoled by the governments and media outfits of other European countries about the consequences of electing Le Pen.

And though the premier of Belgium is no Dan Akroyd, such interference in an internal matter could highlight concerns many French people have about the erosion of French sovereignty, a mainstay of Le Pen's platform, and offset the defections of some of his "one time statement" voters. But before some of Le Pen's followers begin buying one way Euro rail tickets for France's growing immigrant Muslim minority, they should be aware of this reality: Le Pen has about the same chance of winning the French presidency as Luxembourg has of becoming an overnight world power...with all due respect to the French speaking Grand Duchy.

Much like the gubernatorial race that made his American counterpart famous, there is little question how the second ballot is going to end. Because Chirac and Le Pen represent two sides of the right, there is little political wriggle room for Le Pen. Duke at least had the luxury of running against a bona fide liberal Democrat with a history (and future) of serious ethical problems.

Furthermore, the polls have shown Chirac winning reelection by a supermajority so large that even "stealth supporters" would have a hard time putting Le Pen over the top. Le Pen would in fact defy the odds by attaining one-third of the vote. Chirac may win another term, he will still have to contend as president with the likely prospect that Le Pen and the troubles he has been talking about will not go away after election day.

His inflated margin of victory will also represent a hollow mandate with the electorate, which proved to be an impassable political obstacle for the victorious Edwin Edwards.

But in the short term, the prospect of a big win for Chirac might soothe the high political tensions in Europe and be of some relief to the French consul in New Orleans since a change of government in France would likely result in him having to "go fishing" for a new job back on the other side of the "pond."