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Breaux Let The Dogs Out
By Mike Bayham
January 10, 2002

Last Thursday, gubernatorial front-runner and current US Senator John Breaux announced that he would not be a candidate in the 2003 Louisiana governor's race.  Breaux had previously been heralded as an unstoppable candidate by political pundits and at varying times appeared to be a likely contender.

Evidence of his early support could be found in the parking lot of the hotel where he held his press conference in which there were several cars sporting bumper stickers that read "Breaux for Governor."  However, the best hope for the Democrats to take back the governor's office opted out of the race stating that he can better serve Louisiana by remaining in the US Senate.

Other Unmentioned Reasons

There is no doubt that the senior senator from Louisiana has been in an influential position to serve his state in the halls of the Senate.  Breaux has worked in Congress since the early seventies and has been a member of the US Senate since 1987.  His stature has been further enhanced over the years as the "go to" man for Presidents Clinton and Bush.  But there were other indicators regarding his decision that he did not mention.

First, there was his purchase of a new house outside of DC.  Breaux is by no means a politician on the political bubble at home so his investment in a pricey house was hardly a risk and a sign that he plans on remaining in the Beltway for the long haul. 

Secondly, the next governor is going to be the one stuck with the bill for current Governor Foster's 8 year honeymoon.  Serious budget problems are on the horizon in the Pelican State and the economy is not going to do any favors for those trying to balance the books with a minimum of cuts.  In other words, the next governor could become a one termer before he or she takes the oath of office.  His position in the Senate carries not only a longer term than governor but less responsibility and political consequences for bad times. 

Thirdly, the only thing that has been cushier than Breaux's job were his bids for reelection.  The State GOP did not even bother fighting him for a second term in 1992 and prominent Republicans did their best to sabotage Rep. Jim Donelon's bid against Breaux in 1998.  Breaux's job security is so strong that when he does leave the upper chamber, he'll either be leaving on his terms (like previous Senators Russell Long and Bennett Johnston) or the reaper's (like the late Sen. Allen Ellender).

And finally there is the reason most in the media not only ignored, but often contradicted in their write ups: that John Breaux was far from being a shoo-in candidate. 

In a poll released shortly before his announcement, Breaux was the pick of 36% of those surveyed.  Granted this poll was conducted with a little less than two years before the election, but for someone with as few perceived negatives as Breaux the results had to be sobering.  In other words, despite the hype 2003 was not going to be the walk in the park his spin people had claimed.

The Democrat Side

Many potential Democratic candidates did not even wait for Breaux's nonexistent gubernatorial campaign to go cold before proclaiming their intentions.  A few statewide elected officials were present at his announcement while others sent representatives. 

Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Blanco, the highest ranking Democrat in Louisiana government, has stated that she intends to seek a promotion in 2003.  She also came in second behind Breaux in the latest poll.  Blanco's high placement in the early polls might have more to do with perception than reality. 

She has pushed the envelope on using her office for free publicity as the head of the "Francofete" celebration and appeared in many commercials touting the event.  But aside from being a goodwill ambassador, her office has no other advantage with her post short of a surprise and premature departure from office by Governor Foster.  Some backers might worry that Blanco could end up like her predecessor, Melinda Schwegmann, who polled on top early and finished 6th.

Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, another likely contender, also stated his interest in running for governor.  Ieyoub, who is the last remnant of the "courthouse Democrats" of days gone by, has had some past ethical run ins though he makes up for it with his connections to the urban-black political machines.  He would be the "Edwards" candidate in 2003 if he makes the race.

Democrat State Treasurer John Kennedy, who was not present in person, gets kudos for having the boldness (or audacity) to state that he will be a candidate for governor in 2003 come Breaux or high water.  Kennedy would be the first Democrat to attract "good government" support since Buddy Roemer in 1987 and will be the favorite of the editorial boards and political elite.

Former Senate President Randy Ewing, another governor "wannabe" that showed up to the Breaux press conference, and said that he is looking at a run if he can organize support.  His candidacy would clash with Kennedy's for the already minuscule "reform Democrat" vote bloc.  Ewing previously demurred from a run for Elections Commissioner in 1999, which would have given him statewide exposure.

The Republican Side

Breaux's decision meant more for Democrats than Republicans.  Though he was their strongest potential candidate, the Louisiana Republican Party could not share in the jubilation with good reason.  Republican candidates barely dented the latest poll with there being no clear GOP successor to Foster. 

Furthermore, it is not so far outside of the realm of possibility that if no strong candidate emerges that the October election could very well be a Democratic primary with the general election pitting two Democrats against each other.

As of right now, only State Senator Ken Hollis has declared his candidacy though he has not inspired much early support.  Hollis, who represents the New Orleans suburb of Metairie, needs to show contributors that he is more than a well financed version of Quentin Dastugue (see aborted campaigns of 1995).  Hollis also needs to be prepared to make amends for his previous flirtations about a party switch and a challenge to Foster in 1999.

Other potential Republican candidates that have been more coy about their intentions include Senate President John Hainkel, former Governor Dave Treen, former House Speaker Hunt Downer, Congressman David Vitter and Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell.  Many of the people on this list were in the same boat as the Democratic candidates in which they were also waiting for Breaux to make his decision before they made their own.

Of this list, Terrell and Vitter stand out as the most potent candidates on the Republican side.

Of course the loser of the behind the scenes GOP duel to face US Sen. Mary Landrieu in 2002 might decide to try their luck in the governor's race.

And then there is the Foster factor.  Though his record of endorsements in terms of wins and losses can be compared to the Tulane football program, most voters might give his favorite a strong look at a bare minimum, translating into a solid vote base. 

On the other hand, Foster could potentially throw the GOP a curve if he went with an agreeable and viable Democrat over a hapless Republican that has broken ranks with his agenda, as he has done in other elections.

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines

The birth of the 2003 governor's race should be dated January 3, the day Breaux took himself out of the governor's race.  Fundraising had almost been nonexistent in the governor's race with contributors and candidates alike not wanting to show any disrespect to the influential senior senator.

There are twenty-two months between now and the October primary.  To say that there is plenty of time available for any candidate of merit and substance to put together a winning campaign would be an understatement.  It took the current occupant of the governor's mansion about that long to build a foundation that would take him from 2 to 26%. 

Polls won't matter much to the general public till two summers from now. 2003 will be the year for the candidates to shake the hands of the voters while 2002 will be the year for the candidates to shake down the wallets of wealthy contributors.  This year will be about money raising and issue posturing in the halls of the State Capitol.   It will also be a time for potential candidates that don't have much of a record to run on to establish one in a hurry.