Other Columns by Horace Cooper
Horace Cooper Bio

Printer-Friendly Version

Page 2 of 3

Races tighten in the fall: One of the strongest advantages that election analysts have had in making the case for a major win by Democrats this fall has been polls showing a generic preference for Democrats over Republicans. But this indicator is quite fleeting. Since 1998 Republicans have headed into the fall campaigns facing a deficit in the generic polls with a number ranging between 6-10 pts. In 2002 a year Republicans gained seats in the House and Senate, both Gallup and Time initially had Republicans behind as much as 9 points before the race tightened. Then as now the generic numbers tightened. Additionally contrary to conventional wisdom, the voters who decide late increasingly are increasingly just as willing to vote for incumbents as they are for challengers. Absent a gap greater than 5 pts on election day, Democrats will not be able to overcome redistricting gains made in 2002 or overcome red state Republican preferences in states like Virginia and Tennessee. Moreover since Republicans will remind voters that elections require that a choice be made between two parties, anti-Republican sentiment alone won't lead to victory. Additionally significant declines in gas prices and a dazzling upsurge in the stock market will dramatically attenuate the anti-GOP mood as November draws near. A strategy predicated on a double digit voter preference on Election Day for Democrats will yield disappointing results.

There isn't an anti-war majority in America: Democrats have misread surveys of Americans' opposition to the war in Iraq. As a result they've allowed the party to become closely identified more with its John Murtha -- Michael Moore "surrender first" wing. Notwithstanding the constant media barrage reporting every negative news story involving our troops and Iraq, the truth is that the growing anti-Iraq sentiment reflected in surveys is actually a convergence of two groups: traditional anti-war liberals who oppose all wars and pro-war hawks who believe that the war has been bungled because our troops are hampered by politically correct rules of engagement. A far better measure of American sentiment is a recent Fox News Channel poll showing that half of the public (51 percent) thinks the country's response to the 9/11 attacks was at the right level and a third saying the response was not strong enough. Only 13 percent think the United States overreacted to the attacks. While disturbingly high, anti-war Americans are only between 1/5 and 1/3 of the overall electorate. And although self-described Democrats make up a disproportionate number of this group, even all Democrats don't share the anti-war impulse of the party's base. For this reason even when Democrats alone are asked, they fail to identify the war in Iraq as the primary issue in the fall elections. A strategy which assumes that most Americans share the anti-war sentiments of party activists will alienate the voting electorate and won't even keep all Democrats on board.

You can't win while you're losing: Without a doubt perhaps the greatest reason that Democrats will fall short this November is that success requires wins across the board. In order to take over the House and the Senate they need the political equivalent of an inside straight. To succeed Democrats must defeat 6 Republican senators and at least 15 House Republicans. And if any of their own incumbents lose, then they would be forced to defeat even more GOP incumbents. In 2002 and 2004, elections in which Republicans made notable gains, GOP challengers swept nearly all of the competitive House and Senate races while the party as whole kept losses to a minimum. Today, Democrats face serious Senate challenges of their own in New Jersey, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington State. And in Georgia, Texas, Louisiana and Illinois Republican challengers are giving House Democrats a serious run for their money. A GOP win in any of these races will all but eviscerate any hopes of a Democrat takeover. And when combined with the GOP's phenomenal $30M GOTV (Get out the Vote) program Democrats run a serious risk of actually losing ground on Election Day. A strategy which fails to ensure that incumbents are secure before reaching out for gains is shortsighted and could leave the party worse off than it started.

>> Continued -- Page 1 2 3