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The fall campaign is heating up in earnest and a pattern is repeating itself -- one that should look familiar. It's a pattern of Democrats preparing for their big win only to come up short on Election Day. Yet this reality has yet to dawn on Democrats. Today most Democrats still believe that they are likely to retake either the House or Senate. And perhaps they could afford this indulgence since so many in the media have repeated their boastful claims for much of the spring and summer. Tellingly, however, this reveals more about the media's political preferences than any political acumen.

On the surface it would seem the political environment is ripe for success by Democrats. But due to key strategic failures Democrats won't be able to take advantage of fallow electoral ground. And this shouldn't be too surprising. Even after losses in 2000, 2002, and 2004 Democrats refused to reconsider their political strategy.

Here are five reasons why the party of Jefferson and Jackson will come up short this November:

You can't go it alone: Unlike the privileged circumstances that Democrats have had for much of the 20th century, they're no longer the majority party in the 21st. During much of the last century party leaders had the luxury of knowing that if they simply got all of those who called themselves Democrats to the polls they could win elections handily. Today not even 40% of Americans self-identify as Democrats. But you wouldn't know it however based on the strictly partisan agenda they're campaigning on. As the last Presidential election demonstrated -- even with enthusiasm and elevated turnout -- Democrats can't win without help from independents and Republicans. Conversely, the GOP has proven again and again that it can win and even expand simply by appealing to Republicans and conservative independents. Even though their partisan message may very well mobilize Democrats this fall, once again that message will turn off Republicans and many independents. At best this strategy will only increase the margin of victory for Democrats in safe districts and at worse it could actually excite the opposition. Unless your party comprises at least half of the electorate or more, energizing your party's base while alienating independents and Republicans is a classic strategy for failure.

You can't get ahead while you're trying to get even: Going after Joe Lieberman because of his position on the war in Iraq is precisely the type of political mistake former House Leader Dick Armey warned against. Instead of using their resources against vulnerable House or Senate Republicans, leftist bloggers and other liberal activists in the party chose to settle scores. This is wasteful in terms of campaign resources and political energy. Instead of sweeping three GOP House seats in Connecticut, Democrats will be lucky to take one. And worse, instead of being available to campaign and fundraise for vulnerable incumbents or challengers in red states, Joe Lieberman is forced to stay home to fight for his own seat. And finally, despite the party's strategy of trying to minimize its anti-war faction in the public eye, this fight brings the anti-war activists front and center once again reminding the public of the party's remarkable ambivalence about promoting America's national security. This is especially destructive behavior in the wake of September 11. Settling scores that divert your party's resources and remind the public of your party's Achilles Heel is doubly harmful and thus is a strategy that limits the party's chances for success.

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