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Many Washington insiders and their amen choir in the mainstream media repeat a constant refrain that Democrats will achieve a takeover of at least one chamber of Congress and likely gain a sizeable majority of sitting governors in November. This consensus is just plain wrong.

It's true that the so called "six year itch" gives Democrats an advantage this fall. And it is also true that polls show a generic preference for Democrats by as much as 10 points which should help their party's House challengers. And no one can argue with the fact that no modern presidency has seen gains in the Senate in a 6th year election.

But as President Reagan noted, "Facts are stubborn things." And while it might seem that the outcome of the elections is a foregone conclusion, such a view is wrong because Democrats suffer from Ned's syndrome. You may remember Ned, the guy in the Fed Ex commercial who's wrong on practically everything. Like Ned, Democrats are heading for a fall because they too are wrong on America.

Let's review:

Left wing bloggers and Hollywood celebrities are not credible resources for party policy and direction. Michael Moore, Barbara Streisand and Markos Moulitsas do not have a good feel for the pulse of mainstream America. Both the economic and counter-culture orthodoxy advocated by these and other party regulars create a huge electoral headwind hindering the party's prospects. An agenda made up of hostility to the wealthy; the Boy Scouts; and the Pledge of Allegiance, and one which also promotes gay marriage and teenage abortion is not a platform that will yield a governing majority on Election Day. This is true no matter how fervently these policies are promoted or explained. Stop letting these folks position the party so that it embodies the insular views of East or West Coast progressives because that is the prefect recipe for losing.

Race-baiting is a political strategy for the lazy. Perhaps greater than Democrats embrace of a counter-culture worldview alien to most parts of America has been an ever accelerating trend toward political race-baiting. But dividing the public along racial lines is not a policy nor is it a plan. Today however, it is a key election tactic for Democrats. Race baiting has in some races made the party competitive without requiring any announced agenda or use of any political capitol. But the fact is that in addition to having no record of success anywhere on the planet, quotas and related gender and race-based schemes are divisive and now serve to generate significant hostility to Democrats by the American electorate. Letting go of this tactic will be difficult but it must be done. Today the costs of racial polarization exceed any benefits to the party and as more Americans recognize this strategy the costs for continuing it will rise.

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