The Sixty Percent Majority Party
By Horace Cooper
February 15, 2005

How the mighty have fallen. In the space of forty years the world's oldest continuing political party went from absolute dominance throughout the United States to a shell of its former self. Now, with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as its chairman and chief spokesman, the Democrats have fallen even further and are threatening to become a permanent minority for at least several generations.

Though seldom mentioned, the current political environment is, for the Democrats, more inhospitable than at any time since the Great Depression. Party leaders and the activists who make up the base have been remarkably stubborn in their refusal to learn from experience. They fantastically maintain that their election losses are a product of their inability to explain their ideas and views effectively. Actually, they are rather honest about their desire to raise taxes and neuter the U.S. military, to name two examples of where they do a fine job of explaining what they are for. Meanwhile, they do nothing to stem their downward spiral.

The 2006 elections will probably yield more disheartening results. Party switching, candidate recruiting difficulties and further losses proceed apace and, given the scope of Bush's victory in 2004, may even accelerate as the party's self-immolation accelerates. Yet Democrats within and without the party can't see what's happened and continue ineluctably towards political party denationalization.

No matter what the explanation, the Republican Party is now the majority party and is expanding its scope and range in much the same way the Democrats did in the last century.

It turns out that the Democrats reached the apogee of their political power in January 1965, when they were the masters of all they surveyed. Just forty years ago, the party held a staggering super-majority of 68 seats in the U.S. Senate and a veto-proof majority of 295 in the House of Representative while Lyndon B. Johnson was elected to his own term in the White House by the largest popular majority up to that time, winning 44 states and 486 electoral votes against Arizona Republican Barry Goldwater. And the Democrats held 33 of 50 governorships and 59 percent of all the state legislative seats.

The party truly had strength -- it was America's sixty percent plus party.

Ending perceived gaps between rich and poor, black and white, men and women and fighting Communism; you name the dramatic cultural and societal transformation goal both at home and abroad, the party put its muscle into tackling each.

Today, the Democrats are in shambles. They are on the wrong side of just about every issue and are in the process of winnowing down their base to ever smaller numbers. They have confused the voters they need to win over and keep if they are ever to regain the majority by opposing the first Hispanic attorney general, the first black woman secretary of state and many parts of the war on terror. The party that created Medicare and Social Security has adopted a shortsighted legislative policy of opposing all reforms presumably until some unknown later date.

Such cynicism is far too transparent and harbingers an Icarian political strategy which not only threatens these programs' solvency and thus their existence, but also that of the Democrat Party.

Since 1965, the party has prevailed at the presidential level only three times. Yet during that same period, the GOP has won seven times. And additionally, a Democrat has been able to garner more than 50 percent of the popular vote only once since then. And he -- Jimmy Carter -- was shellacked four years later. The GOP, by contrast, has won the White House with more than 50 percent of the popular vote five times -- including two 49 state sweeps.

The overall win loss numbers do not capture the really bad news. The average popular vote margin since 1965 is only 47 percent while the GOP averaged 50.1 percent. More ominously, their average electoral vote over that same period is 221, almost 50 electoral votes shy of the 270 needed compared to 312 for the Republican Party.

Things don't look better for Democrats in the U.S. Congress, where they hold 44 senate seats and 201 house seats. Looking further afield, they now have governors in only 22 states and maintain control of only 49 percent of state legislative seats.

In the zero sum game of America's two-party system, the Democrats 21st century drought is yielding a GOP bumper crop. Take a close look at the numbers in 1965 and compare them with today and you'll see an interesting pattern. Note that in each case (except with state legislators which held only 59 percent of the seats) Democrats held a 60 percent plus majority across the nation 40 years ago. Today it is the Republicans who are in the superior position. And due to subtle differences between now and then the GOP has largely already achieved the modern equivalent of the 60 percent majority or they are just shy of it.

For instance, in 1965 the Senate required 67 votes to end a filibuster. Today it only requires 60. And although Republicans have only 55 votes in the Senate they only need a combination of either a five seat pickup or a five vote shift among Democrats in order to overcome a filibuster. Thus in the Senate they are just shy of the supermajority.

In the House things are even better for Republicans. With its post-Watergate reforms, simple majority rules and effective political leadership the House functions as if it had a GOP super-majority.

And although the most recent Gallup poll gives the President a 57% approval rating (just shy of the 60%+ super-majority) a far more revealing number is found in last November's election. 61%, that's the number of states that voted Republican. It's also roughly equivalent to the 60% of states that today have a Republican governor.

Today the GOP's near super-majority status gives it the strength and flexibility to strategically advance and secure its long-term primacy. While scandal and tragic events out of its direct control could delay this goal, at least for now Howard Dean's election means that serious political competition won't be among its challenges.

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Horace Cooper, a syndicated columnist, is a senior fellow with the conservative Centre for New Black Leadership

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Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.