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No Compromise On Offshore Oil
By Phil Kerpen
August 5, 2008

Page 2 of 2

If they decide it is, just weeks before Election Day, the dynamics of the elections will be dramatically transformed. Energy will no longer be one of several top tier issues. It will become the only issue. And it will become the only issue at a time when Republicans have little else going for them. Polls show that as prices have climbed at the pump, the public support for offshore oil drilling has climbed too, now reaching as much as 75 percent, an overwhelming majority. A national referendum on offshore oil drilling is an election that Republicans should win. Faced with that prospect, opponents of drilling are much more likely to back down and allow production of domestic energy to commence.

If Democrats do opt for the shutdown, it would cost them politically. Some will argue that President Bush and Republicans would be blamed for causing a government shutdown, worsening the already poor electoral outlook for the party. That possibility is unlikely, however, because of the facts of the situation. Just as Newt Gingrich was blamed for shutting down the government when he refused to accede to President Clinton, this would be an example of Congressional obstinacy in the face of clear direction from the White House, exercising his veto authority under the U.S. Constitution. Moreover, in this case the president would merely be defending the continuation of existing law, which calls for drilling to be permitted come October. It would be Democrats insisting on the imposition of a new offshore ban that flies in the face of public opinion.

This high-stakes strategy may not be as much as a gamble as it appears. Most analysts believe Republicans are already set to take heavy losses this year. Betting the election on the energy issue through a forced showdown on offshore drilling, even in the worst case scenario, is unlikely to make the already bleak outlook any worse.

Americans are straining under the burden of sky-high gasoline prices, and are eager for measures to increase domestic production. A compromise deal may be tempting, but there is a clear path to an outright policy victory that should be pursued instead. The public has no appetite for a new ban on offshore oil drilling, and President Bush can make crystal clear that he will not sign one into law. It's not just good politics - it's also likely to lead to a much-needed policy victory.

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Mr. Kerpen is director of policy for Americans for Prosperity.

--------------------

Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.

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