No Compromise On Offshore Oil
By Phil Kerpen
August 5, 2008
While President Bush and Republicans are beating the drums daily for more oil and gas production, Democrats are finally starting to crack and offer compromises, with even Democratic standard-bearer Barack Obama softening his position. Democrats see the polls and they know that this is the one issue that threatens their otherwise commanding position heading into the elections. Conservatives may be tempted to accept a compromise for the sake of an important policy victory, but they can do better. A full, no-compromise victory is now less than two months away, if supporters of domestic energy production can just stick together and defend the current law.
President Bush should announce that offshore oil leasing will commence on October 1st, 2008, the day after the current Congressional ban expires. He should make clear to Democrats that he will veto any legislation to impose a new ban in October, even if Democrats attach it to so-called "must pass" legislation to keep the government open. In other words, he should dare the Democratic Congress to shut down the federal government in order to stop offshore oil leasing.
Congress has never seen fit to enact a permanent moratorium on offshore drilling, opting instead for a series of one-year bans, with this year's ban ending with the current fiscal year at the end of September. It is opponents of drilling then who are in a position to need a vote on legislation to impose a new ban for fiscal 2009. President Bush, with his veto pen, is in a position to stop them, and there is no good reason for him to cave in.
First, we need the oil and gas. According to the conservative estimates from the Department of the Interior's Mineral Management Service, the Outer Continental Shelf (the area where offshore drilling would take place) contains 86 billion barrels of oil and 420 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Until the end of September, 97 percent of that area is subject to Congress's ban on offshore exploration and production. The perception of substantial new production coming in the near future would break the expectations of future price increases in the futures markets and lower prices at the pump, which we already saw a preview on when President Bush lifted the executive branch's own prohibition of offshore drilling.
Secondly, a showdown on this issue is a political winner for Republicans - which is precisely why Democrats are scrambling to avoid one. Democrats initially thought they could avoid the issue by shutting down work in the Appropriations Committees, which usually include an annual ban in the Interior Appropriations bill. They will now likely to pursue a continuing resolution to keep government running until after the election. They would use the continuing resolution to sneak through an extension of the drilling ban. President Bush should make clear that he won't sign any such extension. That would put the ball in Democrats' court to decide whether stopping offshore oil drilling is worth shutting down the federal government.
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