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Are Religious Conservatives And The GOP Headed For Divorce?
By Deal W. Hudson
May 28, 2008

Page 2 of 2

Hagee tried to beat McCain to the punch by withdrawing his endorsement. If McCain had simply waited a few hours, he could have graciously accepted Hagee's withdrawal, thus accomplishing the same thing but softening its impact on Evangelical voters. Interestingly enough, Hagee's former critic, Bill Donohue, immediately issued a statement defending Hagee against the ridiculous charge of anti-Semitism:

One week ago today, I met with Pastor Hagee in my office. I found him to be sincere, apologetic, and friendly. I also found him to be the strongest Christian defender of Israel I have ever met, and that is why attempts to portray him as anything but a genuine friend to Jews -- one for whom the Holocaust is the horror of horrors -- is despicable.

Controversial statements from leaders of the Religious Right are not new -- Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, and James Dobson all committed their share. Never before, however, has the leader of the Republican Party made such a point of distancing himself and the party. McCain's rejection of the endorsements, added to his already well-known reticence toward religious activists, places a marker in the political landscape that will last into November and beyond.

There will surely be those who applaud McCain for distancing himself from the "fanatics" on the "Religious Right." They will argue that McCain will gain moderate support as a result. Maybe so, but much more important is the message this sends to the religiously conservative voters who have given the GOP its winning edge for nearly thirty years.

Ronald Reagan won Evangelical support with a now-famous line at a 1980 National Affairs Briefing held in Dallas: "I understand that you can't endorse me, but I'm here to endorse you." Some historians point to this moment as the official beginning of the Religious Right movement.

The unanswered question raised by McCain's words on May 22 is whether he will be viewed by Evangelicals as explicitly reversing Reagan's endorsement. How many Evangelical voters will feel rejected along with Rev. Hagee?

Within the past two months, John McCain has unintentionally aggravated both Evangelicals and Catholics. Both groups had already responded to the McCain nomination with skepticism: Catholics because of McCain's position on embryonic stem cells, Evangelicals because of his blistering attack on Falwell and Robertson after the 2000 South Carolina primary.

As things stand, I believe Catholics are still in play for McCain, if his campaign conducts a vigorous outreach. L'Affaire Hagee will be harder for his campaign to overcome with Evangelicals without significantly ramping up their relationship with grassroots leaders.

And this is no small thing: McCain will need religiously-active voters over the next five months. It's not the moderate voters who raise money, register voters, print and pass out voter guides, recruit their neighbors, and drive people to the polls. Moderates are... well... moderates. They don't bring passion to a campaign.

The fact is, McCain's moderates can't beat Obama's adoring groupies. With many religious conservative voters feeling benched, and others feeling outright rejection, the Religious Right will begin exploring other options for the investment of its energy. (Bob Barr, the newly-nominated Libertarian Party candidate, may find himself the beneficiary of the present unhappiness.)

More likely, new leadership will emerge among religious conservatives propelled to the forefront by the national fight over gay marriage. McCain's best chance to recover their support would be to make the marriage issue a priority of his campaign. Lacking that, it will take another surprising circumstance to bring the Religious Right whole-heartedly back into the presidential campaign.

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Deal W. Hudson is the director of InsideCatholic.com and the Morley Institute for Church & Culture.

--------------------

Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.

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