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Iraq: The Consequences Of Withdrawal
By Greg Reeson
October 9, 2006

Page 2 of 2

First on this list is the current Iraqi unity government. The leaders in Baghdad know that the presence of coalition forces is the only reason the situation in Iraq has not devolved into all-out civil war. Withdrawing American soldiers and their allies would leave the Shiite and Sunni death squads free to conduct their sectarian war while a fledgling Iraqi Army stood by unable to stop the carnage. In the event of full-fledged sectarian violence, the government in Baghdad would collapse, leaving a void that would likely be filled by the Iranians.

The second group opposed to a U.S. withdrawal is the Sunni minority. Yes, it's true that the Sunnis make up the bulk of the insurgency waging war against coalition troops. But the Sunnis are fighting for a place in Shiite dominated Iraqi society. Waging a ruthless campaign against the U.S. and Iraqi armies, and against the central government, is the only bargaining chip available to a group that would surely be targeted for annihilation in a sectarian war. In an odd twist, the Sunnis have to attack the Americans to make them stay until a political accommodation can be reached.

Finally, Iraq's neighboring countries are fearful of a powerful Iran, aligned with a Shiite-led Iraq that would threaten Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and throughout the Middle East. While none of these governments like the idea of U.S. troops in the region, especially for an extended period, the alternative in the form of an Iraq-Iran alliance that could dominate the entire Middle East is even more distasteful.

Despite the difficulties being faced in Iraq, the United States must see this fight through to the end. The fragile unity government in Baghdad must be given a chance to survive on its own.

Pulling American troops out now would give the jihadists the victory they have long been searching for, would make America look weak in the eyes of the world, would thrust Iraq into a bloody civil war, and would create a power vacuum in the Middle East that would allow Iran to establish itself as the regional hegemon. Those are the true consequences of a premature American withdrawal.

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Greg Reeson is a frequent contributor to The Land of the Free and Associated Content. His columns have appeared in several online and print publications, including The New Media Journal, The Veteran's Voice, The American Daily, GOPUSA and Opinion Editorials.com.

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Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.

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