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The Art and Science of Predicting a Winner
By Bobby Eberle
October 25, 2004
In just over a week, Americans will go to the polls to determine who will be the next president of the United States. Some will vote for Sen. John Kerry, while hopefully more will vote for President George W. Bush. In states such as Texas, California, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma, voters will make their selection after seeing few if any presidential campaign commercials on television or radio. On the other hand, voters in states such as Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin will be numb from the onslaught of ads leading up to Election Day.
What makes one state become a magnet for advertising dollars while others remain quiet? What makes one state become a "battleground" while another is set in the "decided" column? Previous election results play a large role in determining where campaign ads will be aired, but polling data (both current numbers and trends) help point candidates and campaigns to those states where the vote is still "up for grabs." In the current presidential campaign, some people are turning to polls with a fervor bordering on addiction -- they can't wait until the newest numbers are released. But what are the polls saying about the Bush/Kerry election and how reliable are those numbers?
Harris Interactive, the group behind the Harris Poll, released a paper October 20 which says, "With only two weeks to go before the election, a new Harris Poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator John Kerry." However, that statement was qualified by the following comment: "[B]ut the size of the lead depends on how we define likely voters."
The paper titled "Bush Leads by Eight Points -- or Two -- Depending on Definition of Likely Voters" says that by using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote and are "absolutely certain" to vote, President Bush holds "a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%)." Using this definition but excluding all those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, "President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%)." According to the Harris Interactive paper, this second definition has "proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which case it would be wrong to exclude them." So much for clarifying the situation. Harris Interactive goes on to say that they have not yet decided which definition to use for their final predictions.
Getting accurate data is key, and many times, it is hard to find. The Washington Post reports in an October 24 story that even in the best of times, "defining probable voters is a challenge." The Post recently asked people whether they are registered to vote, and 86 percent said yes. The Post also asked them how likely they are to vote, and more than 80 percent said they're "absolutely certain." As the Washington Post noted, if true, that would mean turnout would top 70 percent on November 2 -- a percentage that is not likely to be reached.
With so much uncertainty in today's polling, it is almost impossible to predict a winner of a close race with any certainty. Yet, Americans wait for their daily dose of polling as they would their next meal, and multi-million dollar campaigns are influenced significantly by the latest numbers. However, there is definitely some valuable information which can be gleaned from recent polls and which helps paint a picture of the current electoral landscape.
There are a number of states which can be safely put in either the Bush column or Kerry's. Although anything can happen in politics, come November 2, the following states will be in Bush country: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), and Wyoming (3). Those twenty-two states yield 191 electoral votes. For Kerry's column, the following states will contribute: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (11). For those fourteen states, Kerry will receive 183 electoral votes.
Subtracting these "safe" states yields 15 "toss up" states of Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), West Virginia (5), and Wisconsin (10). These states yield a total of 164 electoral votes. This is where the real battles will be fought, and some of these states have already started to break either for President Bush or Sen. Kerry.
The states of Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and West Virginia have all moved toward the president, and those states would give the president an additional 36 electoral votes. The states of Michigan (except for one recent poll), Oregon, and Pennsylvania have moved toward Kerry, and those states would give the senator 45 more electoral votes. With these "leaning" states factored in, the electoral vote count stands at 227 for President Bush and 228 for Sen. Kerry.
Thus, the true battleground states in the 2004 presidential election come down to Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin. With the polls split in these states, it's anybody's guess who will end up victorious. Ultimately, the election will be determined by turnout -- whichever candidate can best energize his base in these crucial states can win the presidency. However, since America loves predictions, I might as well go out on a limb and make some of my own. With Iowa, Minnesota, and New Hampshire going to Kerry, and Florida, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin going to Bush, the president would win 289-249. Based on this model, if Bush were to lose Ohio, the count would be 269-269, however, Iowa and New Hampshire could end up breaking for the president.
In any event, this race has the potential to go down to the wire and extend well past Election Day. Both sides already have their teams of attorneys waiting to fan out across the country. The best way for this election to not be decided in the courts is for the election to be decisive. Thus, people must not only talk about voting, they must get out there and do it. They must also bring their friends and colleagues to the voting booth. This year's polls may be more unpredictable than in years past, but they say with certainty that neither side can afford to sit back and assume things will go their way through advertising and direct mail. All elections come down to counting the votes, and in 2004 the team with the best ground game in the battleground states wins.
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Bobby Eberle is President and CEO of GOPUSA (www.GOPUSA.com), a news, information, and commentary company based in Houston, TX. He holds a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Rice University.
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Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.
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