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Religious Conservatives Could Hold Key to Bush Victory
By Bobby Eberle
October 18, 2004

Many political pundits have long stressed the need for presidential candidates to reach out with a centrist message in an effort to sway the so-called "undecided" voters. This may have been a viable plan twenty years ago, but times have changed and so has election strategy. Back in 1984, conventional political thought held that between fifteen and twenty percent of the electorate fell in the undecided category. With each passing election, this percentage has fallen steadily, and now political strategists estimate the percentage to be somewhere between five and seven percent. Even now, in a close race, the undecided voters definitely matter, but in today's political landscape the few percentage points gained from undecided voters will not matter unless a candidate's core base is energized, excited, and most importantly, motivated to go to the polls and vote.

For Republicans and the campaign of President George W. Bush, the group that holds the key to victory in this new political era is the religious, conservative voting bloc. As previous elections have shown, this group, especially the evangelical Christian segment, is highly motivated and will not only turn out to vote, but will rally others to do the same. They'll do so as long as they feel a candidate is on their side and represents their issues. If religious conservatives do not feel their issues are being addressed, there is a tendency for them to stay home, and this could spell disaster for any candidate who is counting on their support.

According to a recent survey by The Barna Group, evangelical Christians who are likely to vote, support President Bush over Sen. John Kerry by 90%-2%. The Barna group reports that among non-evangelical born again Christians, who make up about two-fifths of likely voters, President Bush is again strongly favored by a margin of 54%-36%. The survey says that the combination of all born again Christians, both evangelical and non-evangelical, is estimated to provide about half of the votes cast in November.

The impact of religious conservatives is not lost on the Bush campaign, and recent election results show the impact that religious conservatives can have. A recent story by the Washington Times stated, "A number of postelection surveys suggest that religious-conservative vote as a proportion of the total vote declined in 2000 versus 1996 -- for example, by as much as seven percentage points in Pennsylvania and three points in Michigan. Mr. Bush, who had the overwhelming backing of frequent churchgoers who did vote, narrowly lost both swing states." Thus, by reenergizing the religious conservatives across the country, and especially in key battleground states, President Bush can do much to further his chances for victory.

One of the elements to getting this constituency to the polls is the issue of gay marriage. President Bush has come out strongly in favor of a federal marriage amendment which would define marriage as a union between a man and a woman. Marriage amendments will be appearing on the November ballot in eleven states, and this can be a huge motivating factor for religious conservatives to get to the polls. A recent marriage amendment in Missouri passed by an overwhelming 70%-30%, and the success of marriage votes on the November ballots in Oregon, Michigan, and especially Ohio, could help mean a win for President Bush.

The Bush campaign, in seeing the importance of reaching out to religious conservatives, recently sent a message to this constituency outlining the proper way to rally support for the president in churches and other places of worship. The message also pointed out what they feel the Kerry campaign is doing above and beyond what is legal campaigning. The Bush campaign states that last week, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) launched a new web site, KerrySharesOurValues.org, which called on volunteers "to distribute material endorsing John Kerry in churches." According to the message, "Democratic leaders encouraged their volunteers to 'give it to your church groups. Share it with your pastor and ask if you can distribute it at your church.'" The message adds that after being confronted about this unethical call to action, "the DNC changed their web site. Then no more than two days later they promptly moved forward with illegally distributing campaign literature during a church service in Miami where Sen. Kerry joined Rev. Jesse Jackson in attacking the President."

According to the Bush campaign message, "peer-to-peer" contact is legal, appropriate, and encouraged. The campaign asks religious conservatives to "reach out to their networks of friends and family from their workplaces, houses of worship, and community organizations." The campaign goes on to say, "On the other hand, the Kerry campaign and the DNC have established a pattern of violating the law and placing churches at risk of losing their tax-exempt status."

Both sides see the impact that religious conservatives can have on this election. With the shrinking pool of undecided voters, it is more important than ever for this group to turn out on Election Day and bring family and friends with them. Today's elections are all about energizing the base and getting them to the polls. As conservatives, we cannot just sit back and assume the voting will get done by someone else. Do we really want to put the fate of the election in someone else's hands? Clearly the answer is no. We must therefore rally the troops in the closing days to vote, either absentee or at the polls. As was seen in 2000, every vote matters, and the outcome of an entire state can hinge on one or two votes in each precinct. Religious conservatives must act and must act with vigor, so that in this time of war, terrorism, and uncertainty, the commander-in-chief remains President George W. Bush.

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Bobby Eberle is President and CEO of GOPUSA (www.GOPUSA.com), a news, information, and commentary company based in Houston, TX. He holds a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Rice University.

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Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.