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GOP Convention Should Not Forget the Conservatives
By Bobby Eberle
August 30, 2004

In 2000, there was electricity in the air as Republicans gathered in Philadelphia, birthplace of the American republic, to nominate then Texas Gov. George W. Bush to be the next president of the United States. We had lived through eight long years of Democratic control of the White House under Bill Clinton, and unlike 1996 when we simply went through the motions, 2000 was different. We had a candidate we knew could win, and there was an excitement that permeated the convention hall from the opening gavel to the final balloon drop.

Now, four years later, the setting and the world are much different places. In 2000, President Bush pledged to rebuild America's military, and thankfully, he has worked to fulfill that pledge. However, outside of the issue of building a modern military machine, ideas such as terrorism and homeland security were not on anyone's radar screen. Now, they are the defining issues of the 2004 presidential race. In Philadelphia, protests were kept far from the convention center, and the impact was minimized in the media. As delegates gather in New York City, the protesters will be much more vocal, much more evident, and much more numerous. It is against this backdrop of a changed world that President Bush will soon take center stage and ask the American people to keep their trust in him.

In order for President Bush to win in November, he must accomplish two tasks: 1) sway a percentage of undecided voters into his camp, and 2) solidify and energize his conservative base of supporters. The president's speech and, indeed, the speeches of all the prime time speakers, have the potential of doing both, but more than likely, the emphasis will be placed on the undecided voters rather than the base. This is unfortunate, as the time and effort spent to reach the swing voters does not yield the dividends it once did. From 2000 to the elections of 2002, the pool of undecided voters has shrunk, with more and more voters falling into the camps of the two major parties. Thus, the real effort by President Bush and the other convention speakers should be placed on energizing the base and rallying them so that they will not only show up at the polls on November 2, but they will also bring their friends, family, and associates.

So far, the strategy of the Republican National Convention is to appeal to the middle and relegate the conservatives to the back room. The headliners of the convention are noted moderates such as Rudolph Guiliani, George Pataki, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and John McCain. Speakers hoping to dole out a dose of hellfire and brimstone need not apply. The convention will be tame in tone as well as substance in the hopes that undecided voters will see Republicans as the leaders of compassion and not the business-favoring, tax-cuts-for-the-rich party that is incorrectly portrayed to the public by both the Democrats and the media.

The strategy is not without merit. If both parties are successful in turning out their core base of voters, then the election will surely hinge on those voters who make up their minds at the last minute. However, too much emphasis on this strategy risks alienating and frustrating the very people who put George W. Bush into office. The downside of this strategy can already be seen at the convention as some delegates met early to hammer out the 2004 Republican Party platform. Reports from organizations such as the American Conservative Union have described a platform that seems more like Democrat-light than a description of conservative principles. Big government has worked its way even more into education and health care, and attempts to move the platform more to the right in areas such as immigration have been rebuffed by the Bush administration through the platform chairman Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN).

President Bush has done much to win favor among conservatives. From his strong support for the partial birth abortion ban to his stance against gay marriages, President Bush has shown himself to be more conservative than his father. However, in the home stretch of the campaign, the president should reach out even more to the conservative base so that they will enthusiastically work for his reelection. Conventional wisdom states that undecided voters will break toward the challenger the longer they stay undecided. The idea is that all things being equal, if an incumbent hasn't won over a voter by now, that voter will choose the challenger in a "vote for change." The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 dramatically changed that equation, and I believe the conventional wisdom no longer applies. President Bush is not just an incumbent, he is a war-time president. We are now in uncertain times, and voters are anxious about a great many things. But, when election day comes, and undecided voters must choose between a man who has taken the fight to the terrorists and one who would rely more on the U.N. to call the shots, the undecided voters will likely choose the proven leader.

Thus, with his speech on Thursday night, President Bush has his moment to paint a positive picture of America and a positive vision for the future. He must, and can, do this by embracing conservative principles, rather than hiding from them. The conservative philosophy is one which does not target a certain voting block or promise a new program in exchange for votes. Rather it is a philosophy which looks to the strength of all Americans as equals and which doesn't pit one race against the other or one economic group over a second. If President Bush lays out a vision for America built on the strength of conservative values, he can not only win over undecided voters, but also give his base a much-needed shot in the arm.

The presidential election on November 2 certainly needs its share of swing voters to stay with President Bush in order to keep him in office. But, the election will ultimately come down to whether conservatives will turn out in large numbers. If conservatives are energized, they will do more for the president's reelection than any move by the president to the middle. This convention will surely reach out to the middle, but hopefully it will also see the greater importance of giving the base what it desperately wants and needs. This election will be won in the trenches, and it will be the conservatives doing the fighting.

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Bobby Eberle is President and CEO of GOPUSA (www.GOPUSA.com), a news, information, and commentary company based in Houston, TX. He holds a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Rice University.

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Note -- The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, views, and/or philosophy of GOPUSA.