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Morris: A Romney Landslide

By Dick Morris

If the election were held today, Mitt Romney would win by a landslide.

The published polls reflect a close race for two reasons:

1. They poll only registered voters, not likely voters. Rasmussen is the only pollster who tests likely voters, and his latest tracking poll has Romney ahead by 48-43.

2. As discussed in previous columns, a study of the undecided voters in the past eight elections in which incumbents sought a second term as president reveals that only Bush-43 gained any of the undecided vote. Johnson in ’64, Nixon in ’72, Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Reagan in ’84, Bush in ’92 and Clinton in ’96 all failed to pick up a single undecided vote.

So when polls show President Obama at 45 percent of the vote, they are really reflecting a likely 55-45 Romney victory, at the very least.

Gallup has amassed over 150,000 interviews over all of 2011 and compared them with a like number in 2010. It finds that Obama has a better than 50 percent job approval in only 10 states and the District of Columbia. And his approval has dropped in almost every single state. Even in California, it has fallen from 55 percent in 2010 to 
50.5 percent in 2011.

Over the period of May 4-6, I completed a poll of 400 likely voters in Michigan and found Romney leading by 45-43! And Michigan is one of the most pro-Democrat of the swing states.

I also found that Obama’s personal favorability, which has usually run about 10 to 20 points higher than his job approval, is now equal to his job rating. In Michigan, his personal favorability among likely voters is 47-47, while his job rating is 50-48. Romney’s favorability is 49-42.

Obama’s crashing personal favorability reflects the backlash from his recent speeches. In substance, their focus on class warfare and their bombastic, demagogic style are not playing well with the voters. They do not seem in the least presidential.

Nor does his message of attacking Big Oil seem constructive. Voters all distrust Big Oil and would rather see them get punished, but they do not see in repealing their tax breaks a way of lowering prices at the pump or of increasing the supply of oil.

Obama’s trip to Afghanistan looks like grandstanding, and his insinuation that Romney would never have launched the strike looks like a low partisan blow.

Obama cannot summon the commitment he got in 2008 by negatives or partisanship. It was precisely to change the “toxic” atmosphere in Washington that he was elected. To fan it now is not the way to regain the affection of those who have turned on him.

If the election were held today, Obama would lose by at least 10 points and would carry only about a dozen states with fewer than 150 electoral votes.

And the Republicans would keep their Senate seats in Arizona, Texas and Nevada while picking up seats in Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri and Montana. The GOP will also have good shots at victory in the Senate races in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and — if Chris Shays wins the primary — Connecticut. Only in Maine are their fortunes likely to dim.

The journalists in the mainstream media, who are not politicians and have never run campaigns, do not realize what is happening. The Democrats, as delusional in 2012 as they were in 2010, are too much into their own euphoria to realize it. But America is sharply and totally rejecting Obama and all he stands for and embracing Romney as a good alternative. While few are saying these words, they are the truth.

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  1. inluminatuoComment by inluminatuo
    May 10, 2012 @ 1:22 pm

    The current polls show a close race for several reasons.

    1. Most polls are controlled by a liberal media with an agenda to keep their dog in the race.

    2. The angered Tea Party conservative who supported Gingrich, Santorum and even Paul have yet to spool down their anger and disappointment in their candidate’s loss, but when combined into one voice and one candidate would have overwhelmed the establishment Romney. They will soon coalesce and come together like June bugs on a light to rally about Romney when the reality of an opportunity is offered to lance the black boil that currently sits on the rear door of our Whitehouse.

    3. Conservative America is not only mad , but fighting mad at the current administration as well as the establishment Washington political mentality of entitlement in benefits and entitlement in re-elections, Let all politicians, including feigned conservatives take note of what just happened to Dick Lugar in Indiana.

    The sleeping giant of working America normally too busy to take time to vote or follow politics or take polls has awoken and will rise in one voice to cast off the socialist oppressors of our freedoms, and our honest wealth.

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  2. drewby613Comment by drewby613
    May 10, 2012 @ 3:27 pm

    As we saw in the Wisconsin primary–where Scott Walker out-tallied his two main Democrat challengers, without hardly any effort, as his side of the primary was, for all intents and purposes, uncontested–the Republican electorate is fighting mad, as inluminatuo noted in his comment above, and will take any opportunity to send that message up the chain of command. Just as Scott Brown’s election in MA foreshadowed the bloodletting that followed in the midterms, the Wisconsin primary foreshadows a schmear of biblical proportions. Can’t wait to see Chris Matthews ashen face on that Wednesday morning, the morning after the dismissal of The Won.

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  3. vComment by v
    May 10, 2012 @ 4:06 pm

    Saying this can backfire on us…..because a lot of people will get lazy and not vote thinking the election is in the bag!
    WE need to make sure all family members and friends, that are voting age, are registered right NOW!…..not next week or next month!
    Go register for NUMBERS ( ) and Fax and Call every elected official that you can and express YOUR Displeasure about what they have been doing!
    Very few have been doing what is for the BENEFIT OF LEGAL US CITIZENS!
    Remind them they were elected to look after the INTEREST OF LEGAL US CITIZENS AND NO ONE ELSE!

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  4. JDZComment by JDZ
    May 10, 2012 @ 6:28 pm

    It is encouraging to see the polls moving away from Obama and toward Romney. At least it is looking like there is a decent chance of unseating our socialist and most arrogant President and can put some competent adults into the executive branch to deal with our critical issues.

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  5. Pingback: Morris: A Romney Landslide | Tea Party of the USA

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