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We are living in strange times indeed when it's not laughable to suggest that President Obama will be difficult to beat in 2012. Well, I'm not buying it, even considering any positive (but inevitably temporary) surge Obama may receive with Osama bin Laden's death.
In 2008, as an economic crisis played into his hands, Obama ran against an uninspiring opponent in John McCain, campaigned on grandiose promises in lieu of a record, and cultivated and rode a mainstream media wave based on a myth of his messiahship. Yet he still only won with 53 percent of the vote.
Obama had painted a bleak picture of America, which didn't really have much to do with the immediate financial crisis we were then undergoing, though he milked that for all it was worth and incorporated it into his narrative while enjoying a complete pass for his role in creating it.
Obama described an America that had lost its way and exploited the naive idealism of youth voters, promising that he would usher in a new kind of politics and an era of "hope and change."
Obama not only got the youth vote out but also garnered an unprecedented share of it. Some 54.5 percent of Americans 18 to 29 voted in 2008, and they constituted the highest category of the electorate voting. (Seniors -- 65 or older -- constituted 16 percent.)
Young voters reportedly preferred Obama over McCain by 68 percent to 30 percent -- the highest margin in that demographic since exit polling began reporting voting results by age group in 1976. The youth vote is believed responsible for delivering the two swing states of Indiana and North Carolina to Obama.
Unfortunately for Obama, he has not been able to sustain the young voters' irrational exuberance. In the November 2010 midterm elections, just 20.4 percent of Americans younger than 30 voted, compared with 23.5 percent in the previous midterm in 2006. That's about a million fewer youth voters.
But how could it be otherwise? It's one thing to run on platitudes against a party on whose watch the economy lurched into crisis just in time for the election. It's another to run on a record that not only failed to fulfill any of its optimistic promises but also is horrific in actual terms by any objective measure.
Whereas Obama was once seen as far above the fray of petty partisan politics and unencumbered by the stale, corrupt traditions that hamstring Beltway politicians from delivering reform, he is now known to be as petty and hyper-partisan as the best of the party bosses of old.
For as long as he could -- and beyond -- Obama tapped the Bush-scapegoating meme, blaming all of his failures on his predecessor. But without a miraculous economic rebound, he's going to have a very difficult time explaining away his quite specific pledge to keep employment below 8 percent, not to mention ever-soaring gas prices.
Obama now owns the national debt, which would double in his first five years and triple in 10. He's been conspicuously reckless on the issue and has chosen to attack Republicans with class warfare rather than advance responsible policies to reform entitlements and reverse the debt crisis.
His socialistic ideology and policies have horrified the American people to the point that a grass-roots uprising spontaneously erupted throughout the nation in the form of the tea party protests. Contrast this with Obama's leftist constituencies, which are just as often vexed by him as they are pleased with him. When you consider voter intensity alone on both sides, Obama goes into 2012 with a major disadvantage.
Moreover, Obama is no longer popular; his approval ratings are suffering, but more telling are the strong disapproval ratings he has received since mid-2009, showing that he not only is among the most divisive presidents in history but also evokes extremely high negatives. That's remarkable, given the hype surrounding him in the beginning and the mainstream media's continued protection.
Even Obama's personal credibility and ability to connect with voters on substantive issues are severely diminished. The more he spoke about Obamacare the less popular this albatross became. His misrepresentations, his secrecy in governance, and his abuses of power and the Constitution will be further handicaps for him.
It is true that an ideal Republican candidate has yet to emerge, but any credible candidate the Republicans nominate should begin as the odds-on favorite, no matter what propaganda to the contrary the MSM marshal to bombard us. Note that the spate of pessimistic predictions concerning Gov. Scott Walker's conservative policies in Wisconsin did not prevent the re-election of Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice David Prosser.
Provided Republicans don't forget they're in a fight for the survival of the nation and don't allow their stark policy differences with Obama to be diluted by failing to aggressively articulate their positions, 2012 will be the GOP's presidential election to lose.
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David Limbaugh is a writer, author and attorney. His new book, "Crimes Against Liberty," was No. 1 on the New York Times best-seller list for nonfiction for its first two weeks. To find out more about David Limbaugh, please visit his website at www.DavidLimbaugh.com.
COPYRIGHT 2011 CREATORS.COM
May 3, 2011 @ 7:59 am
BHO and his gangster government truly believe that Americans are stupid, that they can be distracted with flowery speeches that lack any substance whatsoever, and that they can run roughshod over the Constitution without consequence; and with the MSM providing top cover to their agenda, they can do as they please. BHO and his gangster government has underestimated America’s resolve. David is right, the 2012 Presidential election is the GOP’s to lose. They better show up with a candidate with some substance, knowledge of the issues and a backbone.
May 3, 2011 @ 10:55 am
“but any credible candidate…” David did not define “credible” for some reason, but I will take your, “better show up with a candidate with some substance, knowledge of the issues and a backbone.” as a fine definition for CREDIBLE vs the usual Establishment banal definition and candidates.
Thank you mightyjin!
May 3, 2011 @ 11:23 am
Sadly about half of America is stupid. They could not see through the smoke mirrors that Obama was putting out when he ran for election. The man is truly a Communist and his goal is to dismantle the capitolist system here. He has already nationalized most of the auto industry, banking, and health care system and placed his chosen people in place to carry out his agenda.
Hopefully the ecomomy will even get worse under his reign and the stupid people will finally wise up.
May 3, 2011 @ 1:23 pm
I do not agree that 50% of Americans are stupid! I would say it is more like 35%, and the other 19% did not do their homework before voting for this “Huckster!” The drive by press gave him a free ride. There was plenty of scary stuff there, but he is “Their guy!” They are still trying to do it, to give him a pass for all his massive failures! AT least the “Slick one” was a good lier, he could lie with style! This clown actually believes his own lies, and he tells so many of them, he can’t remember what he has lied about! It must have been with a heavy heart that he signed off on the Bin Laden raid, but he had no choice! There were too many people in the loop! And if he had failed to act, that would have surely been the end of him once it got out! He can stand there and try and take credit for it till the cows come home, but we all remember his “Crotch salute”, and his appologizing all over the globe for this great nation, his bowing and scraping to the Saudi Prince, “America is no longer a Christian Nation” “The 57 U. S. States” (there are 57 Moslem states) Him and his wife’s shamelessly trotting all over the globe spending many millions of our tax dollars on HOW MANY VACATIONS??? I’VE LOST COUNT! VACATIONING WHILE FOLKS BACK HOME HAVE A REAL UN-EMPLOYMENT RATE OF ALMOST 20% (the numbers they put out are shamefully dishonest) In less than 4 years, he has almost tripled our debt, printing so much money that the world doesn’t even want to take it anymore, and the dollar has decreased 40% in value, and continues to fall! We have to Man UP! We have to realize that to give this “Huckster” another 4 years will be Suicide for America! It may already be too late, but I am going to steal a line from Rush Limbaugh! IF THE REPUBLICANS NOMINATE “ELMER FUDD”, I’M VOTING FOR HIM! IF IT’S TRUMP, OK! IF IT IS NEWT, OK, IF IT IS ROMNEY, OK OR PALIN OR RUDY OR HUCK, I DON’T CARE! AND NEITHER SHOULD YOU! THIS GUY HAS GOT TO GO, AND WITH HIM, AS MANY SENATE SEATS AND HOUSE SEATS AS POSSIBLE! ANYONE WHO VOTES FOR THIS GUY IS AN UN-AMERICAN IDIOT! AND IF YOU TRY AND DEFEND IT, YOU HAVE JUST PLACED YOURSELF INTO THE SOLID 35% STUPID COLUMN! YES, I KNOW, YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID, BUT THAT LEAVES 65% OF US TO TROUNCE THIS CLOWN!
May 8, 2011 @ 5:51 pm
I think it’s to the GOP advantage for candidates to hold off declaring their candidacy until later. The media is salivating big time to begin trashing the GOP candidates, and part of the reason is to take the spotlight off of the destructive (and un-Constitutional) actions of Obama. The attention needs to remain on Obama and his regime for as long as possible running up to the election. So, to any potential GOP candidates, I say “chill” and declare 15 minutes before the deadline. Besides, who the heck wants to hear another go’round of an 18-month campaign session?? That’s annoying, and also, candidates who start too early run out of money early – remember what happened to Hillary? BO doesn’t have that problem because his money comes from fraud sources and from foreign states who have infinite deep pockets – remember his 2008 donors? That’s why he can afford to start his campaign so early – again.
May 3, 2011 @ 11:01 am
The smartest thing the GOP can do is to talk up the inevitability of an Obama win in the last few months before the elections. It will bring the Conservative vote out, and suppress the youth vote. Why? Now that helping to elect the first black president is over with, being part of the the first black president’s re-election is not so much of a big deal. Give them an excuse to be over confident, and on election day they’ll go back to what they do best–play, and leave the voting to adults.
May 3, 2011 @ 11:44 am
Prior to Obama we had a dominant Democratic Congress, with former Governor Bush as a Republican president. While Bush was governor of Texas he was simply an approval authority, generally signing any bill put before him. While President he did the same….so might as well have been a Democrat President.
Then came the Marxist Obama. Bush, Democrat Congresses, and RHINO’s built the coffin, Obama is driving the nails in to seal it shut.
This country cannot afford and continue to exist with compromising politicians. Republican establishment candidates are generally compromisers and must be eliminated with all the other globalists. Of course the questions now are whether control can be restored to the people and if so, is it too late to save the Republic. Constitutional conservatives must be put in place and quickly.
May 3, 2011 @ 12:16 pm
JR – very well stated…I could not agree more. Thank you
May 3, 2011 @ 12:09 pm
The RNC should compiled a video of all the flip flops and lies Obama have said over the past 2 years (will be 4yrs come 2012) and make it into a RNC AD campaign. This was suggested by Mr Pat Cadell. I think it is a brilliant suggestion. Using Obama’s own words to defeat him. If I have the know how and money, I would do it myself!
Some pundants called Obama sanction on the attack on Bin laden’s compound gusty because if the attempt had failed, there would have been a hostage situation etc. etc. I disagree with them
Obama sanctioned the attack for his own political survival! I think the way Obama looked at it is, if the mission was successful (I do have faith the our US Navy Seals by the way. Kudos to them was a mission well carried out) he can then tout his success and appear to be a strong leader. He desperately needed this for 2012. If it had failed, it wont be him being held hostage and no skin off his nose and he can still tout that he did it for justice!
I am very pleased that families of the 9/11 got some closure for their lost ones
May 3, 2011 @ 12:13 pm
Must agree with JR that we need an uncompromising candidate. No quibblers need apply (viz John McCain disciples). We’re seeing too many potential candidates who indicate a willingness to reach across the aisle. For what? More popcorn?
The Dems haven’t had an original idea since they started nodding approvingly at Marxism back in the 20s. They’re now trying to implement it, despite its monumental failures. The ideal GOP candidate needs to present a stark contrast.
May 3, 2011 @ 12:19 pm
Wow…you know, anything can happen in American politics in a year and a half, but it takes a special kind of delusion to believe that it’s the GOP’s race to lose in 2012. If you really think that, you are one dumb dude.
May 3, 2011 @ 12:28 pm
We did it before (lose by default) and, judged by past performance, and, unfortunately, we can do it again. We need leadership and someone with the guts to get it done.
May 3, 2011 @ 4:08 pm
Yeah…anything can happen….even SUSPENSION of the Constitution and elections nationwide by this bozo in office. “Citizens Police Force” anyone??
May 3, 2011 @ 12:24 pm
The headline says it all. It’s ours to lose, and we have manageed to do just that in the past, havn’t we.
Let’s hope we can manage to get someone in there that can do what we all need to get done, unlike the candidates we’ve had in the recent past ( ie: 2008) and all the prospective candidates. After all that, we managed to pick McCain.
I admire the guy, his courage and all, but he just was not the one to beat Obama. And, there were viable choices out there that could have done the job.
We need someone that will stand up to the vetriol and the rhetoric spewed out by the democrats and fight back with the truth… not just stand there and say “We can’t use his middle name… “ Why the hell not!
CGr.
May 3, 2011 @ 3:59 pm
You just described Michelle Bachman in your last paragraph. She’s a fighter and she’s out for blood and justice. I don’t know why she is so concerned about running for re-election for Congresswoman when she should run for President. It seems as though all the politicans hate her that must mean that she’s doing her job which is more than what I can say for the rest of them.
May 3, 2011 @ 4:09 pm
YES, Bachman! YES YES YES Maybe she wasn’t born in Canada but I still think she’s one of the Stepford wives.
May 3, 2011 @ 12:29 pm
It’s quite true the election is the Republicans’ to lose, and I fear they will find a way. One good way would be to continue the wishy-washy campaigns of the past. We need someone with a good grasp of our problems and the audacity of a Trump. No matter what failings Trump has (and they are numerous), he did get into Obama’s face and force the birth certificate issue. Had the Republicans gone on the offense in 2008 (for example, making a major issue of the real cause of the economic problems), the outcome would almost certainly have been different. Please, RNC, no more playing nice. Take off the damn kid gloves and get serious.
May 3, 2011 @ 3:34 pm
The RNC did have someone in 2008 who wanted to take off the kid gloves. Sarah Palin, but McCain and his campaign staff wouldn’t allow her. That’s why the damn fool lost.
May 3, 2011 @ 1:17 pm
I agree 100%, I only hope the Republicans put up a candidate, who I can feel good about voting for. The last time I felt good about the person I was voting for was Ronald Reagan.
Question: if our votes are secret, how can anyone breakdown which category of voters, voted for which candidates ?
maybe there not so secret.
c
May 3, 2011 @ 1:33 pm
The only resolve needed in the 2012 election is th vote for whatever candidate the republicans field.
My favorite candidate is ANYBODY BUT OBAMA………simply make it a referendum of NO confidence for O-Bozo.
May 3, 2011 @ 1:38 pm
Even FOX news is struggling to put a neg spin on this and they’ve got a lot of people to work on it. Live with it. He took action and it went well. None of our guys went down.
Too bad that American – made helicopter didn’t perform as well as it should. BUY AMERICAN!
Trump will be looking into the camera on his last show and laughing, saying, “Just kidding, wanted to see how crazy I could talk and still draw in people to back me. Gotcha!”
“Pres Obama has painted a bleak picture of America”????
Haven’t you been watching Glenn Beck??? He does it with creepy Jaws 2 music.
May 3, 2011 @ 4:23 pm
He took “convenient” action. I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama gave Bin Laden a pass letting him go, and this whole thing was staged for re-election granny points. Bin Laden’s still probably alive walking around blending into the crowd with a new name like the witness protection program. heh.
May 3, 2011 @ 4:35 pm
@ Phillydawg = You’re is serious trouble – total denial. We didn’t land on the moon either, did we?
May 3, 2011 @ 4:46 pm
You got that right. Just watch how fast he resurrects if Obama gets re-elected. He’ll probably be our next Secretary of State.
May 3, 2011 @ 1:46 pm
I think we’re in deep trouble. In his first confrontation with the Obama gang over government funding, John Bohnner folded like a wet noodle. No wonder Obama praised him for his fine example of bipartisan politics. The Obama gang got everything – we got nothing but more debt. If this is what we have going for us, we might want to avoid the expense of election campaigning and swear Obama back in now.
May 3, 2011 @ 3:15 pm
It’s interesting that the same two states – IN and NC – where Obama is alleged to have won due to the youth vote are the two states where, if you subtract McCain’s vote from Obama’s, you’d have a number less than Bob Barr’s vote. In other words, just as Nader lost it for Gore, to a certain extent McCain was “Barr-ed” from the Presidency – though he screwed up in a lot of other states on his won. Still, the Libertarian Party in a close election is a problem for the GOP, and the GOP would be foolish to continue down the neocon-theocon path when it lost them the House and Senate in 2006, lost them the Presidency in 2008, and prevented them from taking back the US Senate in 2010.
May 3, 2011 @ 4:29 pm
I think the CPUSA is a problem for the dems. Or maybe they should just merge??
May 3, 2011 @ 4:16 pm
The party or candidate that messes over Social Security or the Veterans will lose the election
May 3, 2011 @ 5:25 pm
Phillydawg is closer to correct than you think. (I miss white pizza, but not the FilthyHellfia wage tax and insane car insurance!) EVEN IF we “really did” kill bin Laden (and I agree with Phillydawg that that’s questionable), the TIMING on WHEN we did it is sure interesting. A former Navy SEAL called in today to Rush Limbaugh and said that we’d known that bin Laden was in that compound since AUGUST of LAST YEAR, and that Obama had to be continually proded and poked to do it. This raises two disturbing questions: 1) Is it conceivable that BO waited until he needed something to wipe out something else embarrassing (e.g., a long birth form that no one other than Orly Taitz thought existed, and which had at least 3 or 4 editings in it, and where Trump was NOW pushing him for his transcripts)? 2) Unless BO on some level really is sympathetic to the most fanatic Islamofascists like bin Laden, WHY DID he wait to exploit the EKIA for political convenience’s sake? Much has been said (e.g., Michael Moore) about how Bush “fumbled” when he had the chance to get bin Laden. Well, what would you call waiting NINE MONTHS?!?!? Did he wait JUST to have a plum to exploit politically at a convenient time? Or is he on bin Laden’s SIDE? And even in terms of honor amongst thieves: wouldn’t you think that if he knew August 2010, that he could have used that plum to bail out fellow Dems in Nov 2010? Oh yeah, I FORGOT, it’s ALL ABOUT OBAMA!
May 3, 2011 @ 6:54 pm
Another “Faked the Moonwalks” believer. There should be a national gathering inviting all of you to the National Air and Space Museum in DC.
Former SEALs don’t dis current SEALs. Do you believe everything you read and hear?
If you read or listen to what happened between Aug and now you might understand why it wasn’t a go before this. They probably even held back so it didn’t happen right during Easter and Passover observances. Maybe they were waiting for delivery of some really good American made helicopters that they could count on to get them in and out.
May 3, 2011 @ 9:03 pm
The ScotPond liberal experience … new song, same dance.
Libs are trying to cash in on the Big Win for Obama. Trying to look macho all of a sudden .. and this coming from the pansies who are afraid of guns.
Won’t work. Obama defunded every important feature of the military. He’s obstructed the military at every point. And he’s recklessly endangered moral with his gay fetish.
The timing on killing Bin Laden wasn’t a distraction from the birth certificate.
Killing Bin Laden has always been the exit strategy. Obama now has his exit strategy, plus an excuse to keep trimming national defense. That’s the real issue driving this development.
This does not dlminish the SEALS who preformed the mission. The SEALS are not the ones who plan long term strategy, They execute real time missions. They are military patriots, not cynical political planners.
Obama will now use his Commander in Chief status to re-organize the military budget. And he will do it in a way that is counterproductive to national security. This is a hollow strategy, and it will fail because Libs always blow it when they have to choose between real patriotism and screwing over the military. They just can’t help themselves. Obama is obsessive-compulsive in this direction.
I spent far too long in the military through Democrat and Republican presidents not to know how this dance plays out .. and it always plays out the same way every time, without fail. Carter and Clinton shafted the military while ignoring radical Islam. That’s how we got 9-11 in the first place. And Obama is just more of the same.
Conservatives had better not take their eyes off of the political ball .. the RINOS will move lock-step with the Commiecrats to cripple the military, and do it while they are waving the flag, dancing on Bin Laden’s grave, and pretending to be patriots.
Nothing has changed. They are still who and what they are, yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Only now the Lefty propaganda machine is in full swing.
Watch carefully over the next few weeks .. Obama is going to blow it big time, especially with regards to Israel and Hamas. We will get to see the real Obama. The real Left. the real DNC. But they’ll try to hide behind the Bin Laden take down for as long as they’ve got ScotPond, Daily Kos, and the MSM to milk it.
This is all too pathetically predictable .. new song, same dance.
May 4, 2011 @ 8:10 am
Thank you Idylewylde – excellent analysis – brilliant summary
May 4, 2011 @ 3:14 pm
Last wake up call for the Republican leadership. Americans are hurting and Republicans are to blame. Party affilliations aside, American Patriots are E Plurbis unim… we are the gang of one… we are the Government of the People.
The Republican leadership has become the watchdog that tail wags for criminals offering table scraps. DO YOUR JOB OR CLEAR YOUR DESK! We are willing to back you, but we are also willing to slam the door on your way out.
We have millions of un-employed people capable of doing your job. Now is the time to impress us, bad memories have consequences and 2012 is our ‘think or sink’ election.
Patriots, pass it on, warn your friends. 2012 is Americas’ think or sink election!