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Will Indiana Put an End to Trumpmania?

April 28, 2016 at 6:44 am 5 Commentary
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After sweeping five state preference primaries on Tuesday night, Donald Trump declared himself to be the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. He may end up as the nominee, but he’s not there yet.

In fact, his plans to claim an early victory could come to a screeching halt in Indiana next Tuesday.

If Senator Ted Cruz wins Indiana, he will certainly change the narrative of the race. Just as important, he’d make it very difficult for Trump to cobble together enough delegates to win on the first ballot.

Indiana awards 30 delegates to the statewide winner of the race and 3 to the winner of each Congressional District. The statewide winner will probably also win 5 to 7 Districts for a total of 45 to 51 Hoosier delegates. The loser will gain only 6 to 12.

Right now, my projections show that if everything breaks right for Trump, he would get a total of 1,269 delegates (see styrk.com). That’s more than enough to win it all, but that total assumes he wins big in Indiana.

Related News: Can he be stopped? Trump needs 48% of remaining delegates for majority.

A loss in the Hoosier State would cost Trump an estimated 45 delegates (51 assumed for the winner minus 6 for the loser). That would put him about a dozen votes shy of where he needs to be. And, there would still be nine states in play.

After the blowouts of the last two weeks, some people find it hard to believe that Cruz could actually win the next primary. I don’t know if he will win, but I do know that there are reasons to believe it is possible.

First, Indiana is much different than New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut and the other northeastern states.

But there’s something else going on that is probably causing some heartache among the campaign professionals on Team Trump. Their candidate’s biggest victories have come in the states with the lowest turnout. That’s because the Cruz team didn’t waste money advertising in states they expected to lose.

Whatever else may happen next Tuesday, you can be sure that the Cruz team and their allies will spend plenty of money advertising and getting people to the polls. With both sides fully engaged, voter turnout should end up among the highest of the season, and that’s good for Cruz.

If Cruz does pull off a victory next week, the final nine states will determine whether Trump still has a chance for the nomination. Trump is expected to win New Jersey and West Virginia while Cruz could win Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana. Three other states split their delegates proportionally and should be close.

But the last state to vote — California — will have a huge impact.

The delegate details are different than Indiana, but the dynamics are the same and produce a big difference between first and second place. The statewide winner might pick up 133 delegates while the loser could hope for about 39.

If Trump loses Indiana but has a big win in California, he could probably claw his way to a narrow convention victory.

But if he loses both Indiana and California, the storyline will be much different. In that scenario, Trump would end the campaign on a losing streak and Cruz would be the nominee.

To find out more about Scott Rasmussen and to read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2016 CREATORS.COM

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5 Comments

  1. ltuser
    ltuser April 29, 2016 at 12:11 am

    Yes if he loses there, it would be a big hit to his rolling over everything in his path. BUT last time i checked, he was way ahead in the polls..

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  2. eagleseven
    eagleseven April 29, 2016 at 5:28 am

    The latest polls show that 40% of the republican base hates Trump and about 25% are scared of him. He will not get to 1237 in spite of what the pundits say. This will be decided at the convention.
    Remember what happened with Rommey where about 3 million voters stayed home because they thought he was not conservative enough. Also 60% of evangelicals have voted for other than Trump.
    Sure, Trump won the last 5 primaries but before that Ted Cruz also won five in a row.
    Ted Cruz has my evangelical vote.

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  3. eaglecry April 30, 2016 at 2:50 pm

    Hundreds of thousands of my generation didn’t vote in the last presidential election because their only choice was between elite professional politicians. No matter how much they tried to dress Romney up as just a good businessman, we knew he was an establishment man. We are voting this time.

    So I repeat. “Trumpmania” isn’t about Trump. It’s about defeating the political elite of America and sending them home (or elsewhere) to find a real job. And it won’t be over in June or in November or next year or whatever. It will certainly outlast Trump.

    And this article (along with the hot air coming from many political talk shows) makes my point that in the future anyone who makes money talking about politics or working on politics should be ineligible to run for office.

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  4. davidkantor46@gmail.com April 30, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    I was a Carson Supporter and I initially thought Trump would drop out many months ago. I will be voting for Trump because he will win the primary fair and square AND Dr. Carson endorsed him. Trump gets things done and isn’t some kook that the disgruntled “others” would have you believe. The U.S. is better off with “adjustment pains” now rather then either a revolution or turning into another European socialist state.

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  5. Joe Martin April 30, 2016 at 11:22 pm

    Count Chocula and Cruela DeVille held a rally in South Bend at a venue that could hold at least 2000, only a few hundred showed up.

    A recent ARG POLL from Indiana shows Donald Trump leading the race with 41%, Ted Cruz 32% and John Kasich 21%.

    Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Indiana (260 self-reported Republicans and 140 self-reported independents and Democrats. Sample Dates: April 27-28, 2016. Almost the identical results from a FOX News poll a couple of days earlier.

    Watch for Cruz to piviot and start claiming salvation lies in California before the Indiana polls even open.

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